National property risk · FEMA NRI + NFIP + NOAA
Where is property risk worst in America?
Three federal records answer that three ways. The National Flood Insurance Program has paid out $89.3B across 2,659,338 flood claims since 1978 — the realized losses. FEMA's National Risk Index models $153.8B a year in expected loss across every county — the forward risk. And NOAA recorded $4.5B in storm damage and 628 deaths in 2025.
The counties that have paid the most in flood claims
Cumulative NFIP claims paid since 1978 — the realized record. Harvey (Harris, TX), Katrina (Orleans, LA), and Sandy (Ocean, NJ) are written into this list. Open a county for its full profile.
The highest-risk counties, by FEMA's model
Highest modeled expected annual loss in FEMA's National Risk Index — a forward expectation across all hazards, not a record. The dominant hazard shifts by place: earthquake in LA, wildfire in Riverside, heat in Maricopa. (NRI's loss is aggregated across every hazard, so in a dense northern metro like Cook County a peril like cold wave can be the single largest driver.)
Where the record and the model agree — and where they diverge
Harris, TX; Miami-Dade, FL appear on both lists — high modeled risk that has also realized as paid flood claims (flood and hurricane, the perils NFIP actually insures). When the model and the record agree, the signal is strong. The divergence is the more interesting half: Los Angeles (earthquake), Cook (cold wave), Riverside (wildfire) carry enormous modeled expected loss that the flood-claims record barely sees — because their dominant peril leaves little or no NFIP footprint. The model sees risk the realized flood record cannot.
Which perils do the most damage — and kill the most
NOAA storm events, 2025 (provisional — NOAA revises). Bar = property damage; the deadliest is not the costliest — flash flood killed the most (206). These are the top perils by damage; the $4.5B / 628-death totals above span all perils (heat, rip currents, and lightning add to the toll).
Go deeper: every county's risk profile · by state · by hazard.
RECORDED — the NFIP flood claims paid and the NOAA storm damage/deaths are published records. MODELED — FEMA's expected annual loss is a risk model, not a record. DERIVED — the leaderboards are rankings over those sources.
Machine-readable: JSON-LD · Markdown · TOML · context · Source: FEMA National Risk Index + NFIP redacted claims + NOAA Storm Events Database
What this is — and is not
FEMA's risk is a probability, not a forecast for your specific home. NFIP claims reflect insured-and-filed flood losses — not all flood loss, and not uninsured damage. The storm figures cover a single year (2025); the flood claims are cumulative since 1978. This informs and compares; it is not insurance, relocation, or financial advice. Check your address at FloodSmart.gov and FEMA's National Risk Index.