---
title: Where is property risk worst in America? — national overview
license: CC0-1.0
source: FEMA NFIP redacted claims
---

# Where is property risk worst in America? — national overview

A national property-risk overview: $89,276,179,490 in NFIP flood claims since 1978, FEMA's modeled $153,754,543,989/yr expected loss, and NOAA storm impacts — the costliest flood counties, the highest-risk counties, and the deadliest perils. Modeled risk, recorded losses, derived rankings; not advice.

## Claims

### $89,276,179,490 in NFIP flood claims paid nationally since 1978

**RECORDED.** The National Flood Insurance Program has paid $89,276,179,490 across 2,659,338 claims in 2,941 U.S. counties since 1978.

Source: FEMA NFIP redacted claims — https://www.fema.gov/openfema-data-page/fima-nfip-redacted-claims-v2
Falsifier: A RECORD of measured/reported events (occurred=true) from FEMA NFIP redacted claims; superseded when FEMA NFIP redacted claims publishes its next release.

### Harris, TX has paid the most in flood claims ($8,760,434,481)

**RECORDED.** Harris County, TX leads the nation in cumulative NFIP flood claims paid: $8,760,434,481 across 170,803 claims.

Source: FEMA NFIP redacted claims — https://www.fema.gov/openfema-data-page/fima-nfip-redacted-claims-v2
Falsifier: A RECORD of measured/reported events (occurred=true) from FEMA NFIP redacted claims; superseded when FEMA NFIP redacted claims publishes its next release.

### FEMA models $153,754,543,989 in expected annual property loss nationally

**MODELED.** FEMA's National Risk Index models $153,754,543,989 in total expected annual loss across 3,232 counties — a modeled expectation across all natural hazards, not a record of losses.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index — https://hazards.fema.gov/nri/
Falsifier: occurred=FALSE: a MODELED figure — an authority's computed quantity ESTIMATING an independent/latent value (an index or annualized expectation), REPRODUCIBLE from its disclosed inputs, NOT a record of an event. adjudged=TRUE because FEMA National Risk Index (an external authority) computes and publishes it. The grounding promises "reproduce this from the inputs" — so a categorical authority VERDICT that is NOT reproducible (a star rating, a risk class) is a 'determination', not 'modeled'. Superseded by the next release.

### Los Angeles, CA carries the highest modeled expected annual loss ($7,601,846,373/yr)

**MODELED.** By FEMA's National Risk Index, Los Angeles County, CA has the highest modeled expected annual loss ($7,601,846,373/yr; NRI rating Very High; dominant hazard Earthquake).

Source: FEMA National Risk Index — https://hazards.fema.gov/nri/
Falsifier: occurred=FALSE: a MODELED figure — an authority's computed quantity ESTIMATING an independent/latent value (an index or annualized expectation), REPRODUCIBLE from its disclosed inputs, NOT a record of an event. adjudged=TRUE because FEMA National Risk Index (an external authority) computes and publishes it. The grounding promises "reproduce this from the inputs" — so a categorical authority VERDICT that is NOT reproducible (a star rating, a risk class) is a 'determination', not 'modeled'. Superseded by the next release.

### NOAA recorded $4,500,933,310 in storm property damage and 628 direct deaths (2025)

**RECORDED.** NOAA's Storm Events Database recorded $4,500,933,310 in property damage and 628 direct deaths from storm events (2025); the deadliest peril was Flash Flood (206 deaths).

Source: NOAA Storm Events Database — https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/stormevents/
Falsifier: A RECORD of measured/reported events (occurred=true) from NOAA Storm Events Database; superseded when NOAA Storm Events Database publishes its next release.

### The county and peril leaderboards are rankings over the named sources

**DERIVED.** The costliest-flood-county, highest-risk-county, and deadliest-peril rankings are derived sorts over the cited FEMA and NOAA records — reproduce them from the same inputs.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index + NFIP redacted claims + NOAA Storm Events Database — https://hazards.fema.gov/nri/
Falsifier: occurred=FALSE (a calculation, not an event) and adjudged=FALSE (a transparent in-house formula, not an authority's verdict — no external adjudicator). Reproduce it from its named inputs; falsified if the formula or inputs are wrong. Lower warrant than the adjudged figures above.

### Risk is a probability and a backward record — not a forecast for your home, and not advice

**INTERPRETATION.** The NRI is a modeled expectation, not a prediction for any specific property; NFIP claims reflect insured-and-filed flood losses, not all flood loss; the storm figures cover a single year. This is informational, not insurance, relocation, or financial advice.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index + NFIP redacted claims + NOAA Storm Events Database — https://hazards.fema.gov/nri/
Falsifier: occurred=FALSE (a framing, not an event) and adjudged=FALSE (an in-house reading, not an authority's verdict) — the LOWEST-warrant claim here. A flat representation would render this identically to the official facts; the four-status does not.

---

Every claim above carries a four-status warrant (RECORDED / MODELED / DERIVED / INTERPRETATION) and a named source you can re-fetch — this is a research object, not a flat fact. Structured: `https://property-atlas.ryanjhunter.workers.dev/property/risk.jsonld`

## Data

### Costliest flood counties (cumulative NFIP claims paid, RECORDED)

Top 25 U.S. counties by cumulative NFIP flood claims paid since 1978.

| rank | county | state | claims | total_paid_usd | largest_payout_usd |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | Harris | TX | 170803 | 8760434481 | 9023558 |
| 2 | Orleans | LA | 127238 | 7301568112 | 3863390 |
| 3 | Lee | FL | 48455 | 3954666847 | 10841477 |
| 4 | Pinellas | FL | 51759 | 3737997421 | 5761925 |
| 5 | Jefferson | LA | 135482 | 3584505801 | 1000000 |
| 6 | Ocean | NJ | 52878 | 2609781447 | 4022519 |
| 7 | Galveston | TX | 60613 | 2469756709 | 1718912 |
| 8 | Nassau | NY | 51516 | 2280843384 | 9467720 |
| 9 | St. Bernard | LA | 23919 | 2245442111 | 1000000 |
| 10 | St. Tammany | LA | 38336 | 1779286371 | 1000000 |
| 11 | East Baton Rouge | LA | 22558 | 1313926014 | 1000000 |
| 12 | Harrison | MS | 15797 | 1286662101 | 10000000 |
| 13 | Jefferson | TX | 22637 | 1187758013 | 1000000 |
| 14 | Hillsborough | FL | 18548 | 1178164301 | 2649133 |
| 15 | Collier | FL | 14761 | 1128237880 | 4695819 |
| 16 | Suffolk | NY | 33916 | 1114068079 | 1036050 |
| 17 | Orange | TX | 12855 | 1043143293 | 1000000 |
| 18 | Monmouth | NJ | 19975 | 935665715 | 2350191 |
| 19 | Miami-Dade | FL | 62015 | 855042401 | 2081448 |
| 20 | Sarasota | FL | 14410 | 854298993 | 3419809 |
| 21 | Livingston | LA | 14639 | 835145619 | 1000000 |
| 22 | Hancock | MS | 9850 | 744575574 | 1680000 |
| 23 | Escambia | FL | 16497 | 731918128 | 9169507 |
| 24 | Jackson | MS | 11299 | 719962807 | 1000000 |
| 25 | Monroe | FL | 27423 | 713940876 | 3000000 |

### Highest-risk counties (FEMA NRI expected annual loss, MODELED)

Top 25 counties by FEMA's modeled expected annual loss — a forward expectation, not a record.

| rank | county | state | expected_annual_loss_usd | nri_rating | dominant_hazard |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | Los Angeles | CA | 7601846373 | Very High | Earthquake |
| 2 | Cook | IL | 2424304449 | Very High | Cold Wave |
| 3 | Riverside | CA | 2265637643 | Very High | Wildfire |
| 4 | Harris | TX | 2217702383 | Very High | Hurricane |
| 5 | Maricopa | AZ | 2195561910 | Very High | Heat Wave |
| 6 | San Bernardino | CA | 2075099789 | Very High | Landslide |
| 7 | Santa Clara | CA | 1965273928 | Very High | Earthquake |
| 8 | Orange | CA | 1926466710 | Very High | Earthquake |
| 9 | Alameda | CA | 1884810319 | Very High | Earthquake |
| 10 | King | WA | 1680266355 | Very High | Earthquake |
| 11 | San Diego | CA | 1539181273 | Very High | Wildfire |
| 12 | Dallas | TX | 973176569 | Very High | Hail |
| 13 | Contra Costa | CA | 970545043 | Very High | Earthquake |
| 14 | San Francisco | CA | 853429993 | Very High | Earthquake |
| 15 | Miami-Dade | FL | 824686737 | Very High | Hurricane |
| 16 | Clark | NV | 812587961 | Very High | Heat Wave |
| 17 | Ventura | CA | 762169091 | Relatively High | Wildfire |
| 18 | St. Louis | MO | 752688924 | Relatively High | Heat Wave |
| 19 | San Mateo | CA | 739963779 | Relatively High | Earthquake |
| 20 | Collin | TX | 716302549 | Relatively High | Tornado |
| 21 | Philadelphia | PA | 667071998 | Very High | Heat Wave |
| 22 | Broward | FL | 647973333 | Relatively High | Lightning |
| 23 | Salt Lake | UT | 621743321 | Relatively High | Earthquake |
| 24 | Bexar | TX | 619365285 | Relatively High | Hail |
| 25 | Tarrant | TX | 608073828 | Relatively High | Hail |

### Perils by damage and deaths (NOAA storm events, 2025, RECORDED)

Top perils by property damage; the deadliest is not the costliest.

| peril | property_damage_usd | deaths | injuries | events |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Tornado | 1906326500 | 64 | 248 | 1296 |
| Flash Flood | 1297150550 | 206 | 14 | 5393 |
| Wildfire | 788932110 | 61 | 39 | 307 |
| Thunderstorm Wind | 210492330 | 36 | 130 | 17709 |
| Flood | 92357950 | 15 | 5 | 2261 |
| Hail | 60072500 | 0 | 6 | 6109 |
| Debris Flow | 50600200 | 3 | 0 | 163 |
| Drought | 37133250 | 0 | 0 | 2473 |
| Lightning | 22600150 | 20 | 95 | 283 |
| High Wind | 12162600 | 6 | 9 | 3001 |
| Ice Storm | 3205000 | 0 | 0 | 106 |
| Winter Storm | 2947500 | 3 | 6 | 2252 |
| Coastal Flood | 2724900 | 1 | 1 | 148 |
| Strong Wind | 2668350 | 8 | 10 | 561 |
| Lake-Effect Snow | 2398000 | 0 | 1 | 134 |

### Where the record and the model agree — and where they diverge (DERIVED)

Agreement = a county high in both the realized NFIP-claims record and FEMA's modeled risk index (its dominant peril is flood/hurricane, which NFIP insures). Divergence = a top modeled-risk county the flood-claims record barely sees, because its dominant peril leaves little or no NFIP footprint.

| relation | county | state | dominant_hazard | modeled_eal_usd |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| record+model agree | Harris | TX | Hurricane | 2217702383 |
| record+model agree | Miami-Dade | FL | Hurricane | 824686737 |
| model-only (no NFIP footprint) | Los Angeles | CA | Earthquake | 7601846373 |
| model-only (no NFIP footprint) | Cook | IL | Cold Wave | 2424304449 |
| model-only (no NFIP footprint) | Riverside | CA | Wildfire | 2265637643 |
| model-only (no NFIP footprint) | Maricopa | AZ | Heat Wave | 2195561910 |
| model-only (no NFIP footprint) | San Bernardino | CA | Landslide | 2075099789 |