name = "Where is property risk worst in America? — national overview"
description = "A national property-risk overview: $89,276,179,490 in NFIP flood claims since 1978, FEMA's modeled $153,754,543,989/yr expected loss, and NOAA storm impacts — the costliest flood counties, the highest-risk counties, and the deadliest perils. Modeled risk, recorded losses, derived rankings; not advice."
license = "CC0-1.0"
jsonld = "https://property-atlas.ryanjhunter.workers.dev/property/risk.jsonld"

[[claims]]
id = "https://property-atlas.ryanjhunter.workers.dev/property/risk/flood-paid"
warrant = "RECORDED"
name = "$89,276,179,490 in NFIP flood claims paid nationally since 1978"
text = "The National Flood Insurance Program has paid $89,276,179,490 across 2,659,338 claims in 2,941 U.S. counties since 1978."
source = "FEMA NFIP redacted claims"
sourceUrl = "https://www.fema.gov/openfema-data-page/fima-nfip-redacted-claims-v2"
falsifier = "A RECORD of measured/reported events (occurred=true) from FEMA NFIP redacted claims; superseded when FEMA NFIP redacted claims publishes its next release."

[[claims]]
id = "https://property-atlas.ryanjhunter.workers.dev/property/risk/costliest-flood"
warrant = "RECORDED"
name = "Harris, TX has paid the most in flood claims ($8,760,434,481)"
text = "Harris County, TX leads the nation in cumulative NFIP flood claims paid: $8,760,434,481 across 170,803 claims."
source = "FEMA NFIP redacted claims"
sourceUrl = "https://www.fema.gov/openfema-data-page/fima-nfip-redacted-claims-v2"
falsifier = "A RECORD of measured/reported events (occurred=true) from FEMA NFIP redacted claims; superseded when FEMA NFIP redacted claims publishes its next release."

[[claims]]
id = "https://property-atlas.ryanjhunter.workers.dev/property/risk/nri-eal"
warrant = "MODELED"
name = "FEMA models $153,754,543,989 in expected annual property loss nationally"
text = "FEMA's National Risk Index models $153,754,543,989 in total expected annual loss across 3,232 counties — a modeled expectation across all natural hazards, not a record of losses."
source = "FEMA National Risk Index"
sourceUrl = "https://hazards.fema.gov/nri/"
falsifier = "occurred=FALSE: a MODELED figure — an authority's computed quantity ESTIMATING an independent/latent value (an index or annualized expectation), REPRODUCIBLE from its disclosed inputs, NOT a record of an event. adjudged=TRUE because FEMA National Risk Index (an external authority) computes and publishes it. The grounding promises \"reproduce this from the inputs\" — so a categorical authority VERDICT that is NOT reproducible (a star rating, a risk class) is a 'determination', not 'modeled'. Superseded by the next release."

[[claims]]
id = "https://property-atlas.ryanjhunter.workers.dev/property/risk/highest-risk"
warrant = "MODELED"
name = "Los Angeles, CA carries the highest modeled expected annual loss ($7,601,846,373/yr)"
text = "By FEMA's National Risk Index, Los Angeles County, CA has the highest modeled expected annual loss ($7,601,846,373/yr; NRI rating Very High; dominant hazard Earthquake)."
source = "FEMA National Risk Index"
sourceUrl = "https://hazards.fema.gov/nri/"
falsifier = "occurred=FALSE: a MODELED figure — an authority's computed quantity ESTIMATING an independent/latent value (an index or annualized expectation), REPRODUCIBLE from its disclosed inputs, NOT a record of an event. adjudged=TRUE because FEMA National Risk Index (an external authority) computes and publishes it. The grounding promises \"reproduce this from the inputs\" — so a categorical authority VERDICT that is NOT reproducible (a star rating, a risk class) is a 'determination', not 'modeled'. Superseded by the next release."

[[claims]]
id = "https://property-atlas.ryanjhunter.workers.dev/property/risk/storms"
warrant = "RECORDED"
name = "NOAA recorded $4,500,933,310 in storm property damage and 628 direct deaths (2025)"
text = "NOAA's Storm Events Database recorded $4,500,933,310 in property damage and 628 direct deaths from storm events (2025); the deadliest peril was Flash Flood (206 deaths)."
source = "NOAA Storm Events Database"
sourceUrl = "https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/stormevents/"
falsifier = "A RECORD of measured/reported events (occurred=true) from NOAA Storm Events Database; superseded when NOAA Storm Events Database publishes its next release."

[[claims]]
id = "https://property-atlas.ryanjhunter.workers.dev/property/risk/rankings"
warrant = "DERIVED"
name = "The county and peril leaderboards are rankings over the named sources"
text = "The costliest-flood-county, highest-risk-county, and deadliest-peril rankings are derived sorts over the cited FEMA and NOAA records — reproduce them from the same inputs."
source = "FEMA National Risk Index + NFIP redacted claims + NOAA Storm Events Database"
sourceUrl = "https://hazards.fema.gov/nri/"
falsifier = "occurred=FALSE (a calculation, not an event) and adjudged=FALSE (a transparent in-house formula, not an authority's verdict — no external adjudicator). Reproduce it from its named inputs; falsified if the formula or inputs are wrong. Lower warrant than the adjudged figures above."

[[claims]]
id = "https://property-atlas.ryanjhunter.workers.dev/property/risk/boundary"
warrant = "INTERPRETATION"
name = "Risk is a probability and a backward record — not a forecast for your home, and not advice"
text = "The NRI is a modeled expectation, not a prediction for any specific property; NFIP claims reflect insured-and-filed flood losses, not all flood loss; the storm figures cover a single year. This is informational, not insurance, relocation, or financial advice."
source = "FEMA National Risk Index + NFIP redacted claims + NOAA Storm Events Database"
sourceUrl = "https://hazards.fema.gov/nri/"
falsifier = "occurred=FALSE (a framing, not an event) and adjudged=FALSE (an in-house reading, not an authority's verdict) — the LOWEST-warrant claim here. A flat representation would render this identically to the official facts; the four-status does not."

[[costliestFloodCounties]]
rank = 1
county = "Harris"
state = "TX"
claims = 170803
total_paid_usd = 8760434481
largest_payout_usd = 9023558

[[costliestFloodCounties]]
rank = 2
county = "Orleans"
state = "LA"
claims = 127238
total_paid_usd = 7301568112
largest_payout_usd = 3863390

[[costliestFloodCounties]]
rank = 3
county = "Lee"
state = "FL"
claims = 48455
total_paid_usd = 3954666847
largest_payout_usd = 10841477

[[costliestFloodCounties]]
rank = 4
county = "Pinellas"
state = "FL"
claims = 51759
total_paid_usd = 3737997421
largest_payout_usd = 5761925

[[costliestFloodCounties]]
rank = 5
county = "Jefferson"
state = "LA"
claims = 135482
total_paid_usd = 3584505801
largest_payout_usd = 1000000

[[costliestFloodCounties]]
rank = 6
county = "Ocean"
state = "NJ"
claims = 52878
total_paid_usd = 2609781447
largest_payout_usd = 4022519

[[costliestFloodCounties]]
rank = 7
county = "Galveston"
state = "TX"
claims = 60613
total_paid_usd = 2469756709
largest_payout_usd = 1718912

[[costliestFloodCounties]]
rank = 8
county = "Nassau"
state = "NY"
claims = 51516
total_paid_usd = 2280843384
largest_payout_usd = 9467720

[[costliestFloodCounties]]
rank = 9
county = "St. Bernard"
state = "LA"
claims = 23919
total_paid_usd = 2245442111
largest_payout_usd = 1000000

[[costliestFloodCounties]]
rank = 10
county = "St. Tammany"
state = "LA"
claims = 38336
total_paid_usd = 1779286371
largest_payout_usd = 1000000

[[costliestFloodCounties]]
rank = 11
county = "East Baton Rouge"
state = "LA"
claims = 22558
total_paid_usd = 1313926014
largest_payout_usd = 1000000

[[costliestFloodCounties]]
rank = 12
county = "Harrison"
state = "MS"
claims = 15797
total_paid_usd = 1286662101
largest_payout_usd = 10000000

[[costliestFloodCounties]]
rank = 13
county = "Jefferson"
state = "TX"
claims = 22637
total_paid_usd = 1187758013
largest_payout_usd = 1000000

[[costliestFloodCounties]]
rank = 14
county = "Hillsborough"
state = "FL"
claims = 18548
total_paid_usd = 1178164301
largest_payout_usd = 2649133

[[costliestFloodCounties]]
rank = 15
county = "Collier"
state = "FL"
claims = 14761
total_paid_usd = 1128237880
largest_payout_usd = 4695819

[[costliestFloodCounties]]
rank = 16
county = "Suffolk"
state = "NY"
claims = 33916
total_paid_usd = 1114068079
largest_payout_usd = 1036050

[[costliestFloodCounties]]
rank = 17
county = "Orange"
state = "TX"
claims = 12855
total_paid_usd = 1043143293
largest_payout_usd = 1000000

[[costliestFloodCounties]]
rank = 18
county = "Monmouth"
state = "NJ"
claims = 19975
total_paid_usd = 935665715
largest_payout_usd = 2350191

[[costliestFloodCounties]]
rank = 19
county = "Miami-Dade"
state = "FL"
claims = 62015
total_paid_usd = 855042401
largest_payout_usd = 2081448

[[costliestFloodCounties]]
rank = 20
county = "Sarasota"
state = "FL"
claims = 14410
total_paid_usd = 854298993
largest_payout_usd = 3419809

[[costliestFloodCounties]]
rank = 21
county = "Livingston"
state = "LA"
claims = 14639
total_paid_usd = 835145619
largest_payout_usd = 1000000

[[costliestFloodCounties]]
rank = 22
county = "Hancock"
state = "MS"
claims = 9850
total_paid_usd = 744575574
largest_payout_usd = 1680000

[[costliestFloodCounties]]
rank = 23
county = "Escambia"
state = "FL"
claims = 16497
total_paid_usd = 731918128
largest_payout_usd = 9169507

[[costliestFloodCounties]]
rank = 24
county = "Jackson"
state = "MS"
claims = 11299
total_paid_usd = 719962807
largest_payout_usd = 1000000

[[costliestFloodCounties]]
rank = 25
county = "Monroe"
state = "FL"
claims = 27423
total_paid_usd = 713940876
largest_payout_usd = 3000000

[[highestRiskCounties]]
rank = 1
county = "Los Angeles"
state = "CA"
expected_annual_loss_usd = 7601846373
nri_rating = "Very High"
dominant_hazard = "Earthquake"

[[highestRiskCounties]]
rank = 2
county = "Cook"
state = "IL"
expected_annual_loss_usd = 2424304449
nri_rating = "Very High"
dominant_hazard = "Cold Wave"

[[highestRiskCounties]]
rank = 3
county = "Riverside"
state = "CA"
expected_annual_loss_usd = 2265637643
nri_rating = "Very High"
dominant_hazard = "Wildfire"

[[highestRiskCounties]]
rank = 4
county = "Harris"
state = "TX"
expected_annual_loss_usd = 2217702383
nri_rating = "Very High"
dominant_hazard = "Hurricane"

[[highestRiskCounties]]
rank = 5
county = "Maricopa"
state = "AZ"
expected_annual_loss_usd = 2195561910
nri_rating = "Very High"
dominant_hazard = "Heat Wave"

[[highestRiskCounties]]
rank = 6
county = "San Bernardino"
state = "CA"
expected_annual_loss_usd = 2075099789
nri_rating = "Very High"
dominant_hazard = "Landslide"

[[highestRiskCounties]]
rank = 7
county = "Santa Clara"
state = "CA"
expected_annual_loss_usd = 1965273928
nri_rating = "Very High"
dominant_hazard = "Earthquake"

[[highestRiskCounties]]
rank = 8
county = "Orange"
state = "CA"
expected_annual_loss_usd = 1926466710
nri_rating = "Very High"
dominant_hazard = "Earthquake"

[[highestRiskCounties]]
rank = 9
county = "Alameda"
state = "CA"
expected_annual_loss_usd = 1884810319
nri_rating = "Very High"
dominant_hazard = "Earthquake"

[[highestRiskCounties]]
rank = 10
county = "King"
state = "WA"
expected_annual_loss_usd = 1680266355
nri_rating = "Very High"
dominant_hazard = "Earthquake"

[[highestRiskCounties]]
rank = 11
county = "San Diego"
state = "CA"
expected_annual_loss_usd = 1539181273
nri_rating = "Very High"
dominant_hazard = "Wildfire"

[[highestRiskCounties]]
rank = 12
county = "Dallas"
state = "TX"
expected_annual_loss_usd = 973176569
nri_rating = "Very High"
dominant_hazard = "Hail"

[[highestRiskCounties]]
rank = 13
county = "Contra Costa"
state = "CA"
expected_annual_loss_usd = 970545043
nri_rating = "Very High"
dominant_hazard = "Earthquake"

[[highestRiskCounties]]
rank = 14
county = "San Francisco"
state = "CA"
expected_annual_loss_usd = 853429993
nri_rating = "Very High"
dominant_hazard = "Earthquake"

[[highestRiskCounties]]
rank = 15
county = "Miami-Dade"
state = "FL"
expected_annual_loss_usd = 824686737
nri_rating = "Very High"
dominant_hazard = "Hurricane"

[[highestRiskCounties]]
rank = 16
county = "Clark"
state = "NV"
expected_annual_loss_usd = 812587961
nri_rating = "Very High"
dominant_hazard = "Heat Wave"

[[highestRiskCounties]]
rank = 17
county = "Ventura"
state = "CA"
expected_annual_loss_usd = 762169091
nri_rating = "Relatively High"
dominant_hazard = "Wildfire"

[[highestRiskCounties]]
rank = 18
county = "St. Louis"
state = "MO"
expected_annual_loss_usd = 752688924
nri_rating = "Relatively High"
dominant_hazard = "Heat Wave"

[[highestRiskCounties]]
rank = 19
county = "San Mateo"
state = "CA"
expected_annual_loss_usd = 739963779
nri_rating = "Relatively High"
dominant_hazard = "Earthquake"

[[highestRiskCounties]]
rank = 20
county = "Collin"
state = "TX"
expected_annual_loss_usd = 716302549
nri_rating = "Relatively High"
dominant_hazard = "Tornado"

[[highestRiskCounties]]
rank = 21
county = "Philadelphia"
state = "PA"
expected_annual_loss_usd = 667071998
nri_rating = "Very High"
dominant_hazard = "Heat Wave"

[[highestRiskCounties]]
rank = 22
county = "Broward"
state = "FL"
expected_annual_loss_usd = 647973333
nri_rating = "Relatively High"
dominant_hazard = "Lightning"

[[highestRiskCounties]]
rank = 23
county = "Salt Lake"
state = "UT"
expected_annual_loss_usd = 621743321
nri_rating = "Relatively High"
dominant_hazard = "Earthquake"

[[highestRiskCounties]]
rank = 24
county = "Bexar"
state = "TX"
expected_annual_loss_usd = 619365285
nri_rating = "Relatively High"
dominant_hazard = "Hail"

[[highestRiskCounties]]
rank = 25
county = "Tarrant"
state = "TX"
expected_annual_loss_usd = 608073828
nri_rating = "Relatively High"
dominant_hazard = "Hail"

[[perils]]
peril = "Tornado"
property_damage_usd = 1906326500
deaths = 64
injuries = 248
events = 1296

[[perils]]
peril = "Flash Flood"
property_damage_usd = 1297150550
deaths = 206
injuries = 14
events = 5393

[[perils]]
peril = "Wildfire"
property_damage_usd = 788932110
deaths = 61
injuries = 39
events = 307

[[perils]]
peril = "Thunderstorm Wind"
property_damage_usd = 210492330
deaths = 36
injuries = 130
events = 17709

[[perils]]
peril = "Flood"
property_damage_usd = 92357950
deaths = 15
injuries = 5
events = 2261

[[perils]]
peril = "Hail"
property_damage_usd = 60072500
deaths = 0
injuries = 6
events = 6109

[[perils]]
peril = "Debris Flow"
property_damage_usd = 50600200
deaths = 3
injuries = 0
events = 163

[[perils]]
peril = "Drought"
property_damage_usd = 37133250
deaths = 0
injuries = 0
events = 2473

[[perils]]
peril = "Lightning"
property_damage_usd = 22600150
deaths = 20
injuries = 95
events = 283

[[perils]]
peril = "High Wind"
property_damage_usd = 12162600
deaths = 6
injuries = 9
events = 3001

[[perils]]
peril = "Ice Storm"
property_damage_usd = 3205000
deaths = 0
injuries = 0
events = 106

[[perils]]
peril = "Winter Storm"
property_damage_usd = 2947500
deaths = 3
injuries = 6
events = 2252

[[perils]]
peril = "Coastal Flood"
property_damage_usd = 2724900
deaths = 1
injuries = 1
events = 148

[[perils]]
peril = "Strong Wind"
property_damage_usd = 2668350
deaths = 8
injuries = 10
events = 561

[[perils]]
peril = "Lake-Effect Snow"
property_damage_usd = 2398000
deaths = 0
injuries = 1
events = 134

[[recordVsModel]]
relation = "record+model agree"
county = "Harris"
state = "TX"
dominant_hazard = "Hurricane"
modeled_eal_usd = 2217702383

[[recordVsModel]]
relation = "record+model agree"
county = "Miami-Dade"
state = "FL"
dominant_hazard = "Hurricane"
modeled_eal_usd = 824686737

[[recordVsModel]]
relation = "model-only (no NFIP footprint)"
county = "Los Angeles"
state = "CA"
dominant_hazard = "Earthquake"
modeled_eal_usd = 7601846373

[[recordVsModel]]
relation = "model-only (no NFIP footprint)"
county = "Cook"
state = "IL"
dominant_hazard = "Cold Wave"
modeled_eal_usd = 2424304449

[[recordVsModel]]
relation = "model-only (no NFIP footprint)"
county = "Riverside"
state = "CA"
dominant_hazard = "Wildfire"
modeled_eal_usd = 2265637643

[[recordVsModel]]
relation = "model-only (no NFIP footprint)"
county = "Maricopa"
state = "AZ"
dominant_hazard = "Heat Wave"
modeled_eal_usd = 2195561910

[[recordVsModel]]
relation = "model-only (no NFIP footprint)"
county = "San Bernardino"
state = "CA"
dominant_hazard = "Landslide"
modeled_eal_usd = 2075099789
