# Where is property risk worst in America? — national overview — context brief

A national property-risk overview: $89,276,179,490 in NFIP flood claims since 1978, FEMA's modeled $153,754,543,989/yr expected loss, and NOAA storm impacts — the costliest flood counties, the highest-risk counties, and the deadliest perils. Modeled risk, recorded losses, derived rankings; not advice.

Claims (warrant · source), each re-fetchable to verify:

- **$89,276,179,490 in NFIP flood claims paid nationally since 1978** — RECORDED · FEMA NFIP redacted claims (https://www.fema.gov/openfema-data-page/fima-nfip-redacted-claims-v2)
- **Harris, TX has paid the most in flood claims ($8,760,434,481)** — RECORDED · FEMA NFIP redacted claims (https://www.fema.gov/openfema-data-page/fima-nfip-redacted-claims-v2)
- **FEMA models $153,754,543,989 in expected annual property loss nationally** — MODELED · FEMA National Risk Index (https://hazards.fema.gov/nri/)
- **Los Angeles, CA carries the highest modeled expected annual loss ($7,601,846,373/yr)** — MODELED · FEMA National Risk Index (https://hazards.fema.gov/nri/)
- **NOAA recorded $4,500,933,310 in storm property damage and 628 direct deaths (2025)** — RECORDED · NOAA Storm Events Database (https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/stormevents/)
- **The county and peril leaderboards are rankings over the named sources** — DERIVED · FEMA National Risk Index + NFIP redacted claims + NOAA Storm Events Database (https://hazards.fema.gov/nri/)
- **Risk is a probability and a backward record — not a forecast for your home, and not advice** — INTERPRETATION · FEMA National Risk Index + NFIP redacted claims + NOAA Storm Events Database (https://hazards.fema.gov/nri/)

Do not take these on trust — re-fetch each named source. Full structured object: `https://property-atlas.ryanjhunter.workers.dev/property/risk.jsonld` · anatomy of the research object: see /commons/the-research-object

**Costliest flood counties (cumulative NFIP claims paid, RECORDED)** (25): 1 — Harris — TX — 170803 — 8760434481 — 9023558; 2 — Orleans — LA — 127238 — 7301568112 — 3863390; 3 — Lee — FL — 48455 — 3954666847 — 10841477…
**Highest-risk counties (FEMA NRI expected annual loss, MODELED)** (25): 1 — Los Angeles — CA — 7601846373 — Very High — Earthquake; 2 — Cook — IL — 2424304449 — Very High — Cold Wave; 3 — Riverside — CA — 2265637643 — Very High — Wildfire…
**Perils by damage and deaths (NOAA storm events, 2025, RECORDED)** (15): Tornado — 1906326500 — 64 — 248 — 1296; Flash Flood — 1297150550 — 206 — 14 — 5393; Wildfire — 788932110 — 61 — 39 — 307…
**Where the record and the model agree — and where they diverge (DERIVED)** (7): record+model agree — Harris — TX — Hurricane — 2217702383; record+model agree — Miami-Dade — FL — Hurricane — 824686737; model-only (no NFIP footprint) — Los Angeles — CA — Earthquake — 7601846373…