Natural Hazard & Home-Risk Profile for Texas (2026)
What the record shows · 2025
In 2025, NOAA logged 4,755 storm events in Texas, causing 153 direct deaths and $488M in recorded property damage.
Dollars say one thing, lives say another. FEMA's risk model, which weights expected-loss dollars, names Drought Texas's dominant hazard. The 2025 record, which counts lives, points elsewhere: the deadliest force was Flash Flood (144 deaths). Neither is wrong — they answer different questions.
Adjusted for population (29.1M residents), that's 5.26 storm deaths per million — the 5th-highest of 51 states and DC, against a typical 0.91. (By raw count it ranks 1st of 51, but per-capita is the truer comparison.) This is one storm year, so a single severe event can move the rank — read it as direction, not a precise standing.
Looking forward, FEMA projects $12.3B in expected annual loss across all hazards ; $212.3M in federal mitigation funding has been obligated to date.
RECORDED 2025 events, deaths, damage (NOAA) · DERIVED the cross-state rank & median · MODELED FEMA's dominant hazard & expected loss · INTERPRETATION the two-lens reading.
Last updated: June 20, 2026 · Source: FEMA NRI + NOAA Storm Events + USFS Wildfire Risk + FEMA BRIC/HMGP (2026)
FEMA NRI model outputs (county averages). The recorded storm reality is in the verdict above and the per-peril record below.
What is the FEMA NRI risk profile for Texas?
The FEMA National Risk Index (NRI) measures expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience at the county level. The composite score runs 0–100, where ~50 is the national midpoint, so a score above 50 sits above the typical U.S. county. The state figures below are averages across 254 counties.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| NRI composite risk score (avg) | 49.0 |
| Dominant hazard type | Drought |
| Expected annual loss (all hazards) | $12.3B |
| Social vulnerability score (avg) | 64.8 |
| Community resilience score (avg) | 30.6 |
Source: FEMA NRI + NOAA Storm Events + USFS Wildfire Risk + FEMA BRIC/HMGP (2026). County averages; expected annual loss is the state total.
FEMA mitigation investment in Texas
FEMA's Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities (BRIC) and Hazard Mitigation Grant Program (HMGP) fund hazard-mitigation projects. The figures below reflect obligated federal dollars in this dataset.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Mitigation dollars obligated | $212.3M |
| Mitigation sub-applications | 294 |
Source: FEMA NRI + NOAA Storm Events + USFS Wildfire Risk + FEMA BRIC/HMGP (2026) (FEMA BRIC/HMGP component).
Sources & provenance
Every figure on this page comes from FEMA NRI + NOAA Storm Events + USFS Wildfire Risk + FEMA BRIC/HMGP (2026)
(source id src:atlas:fema-noaa-usfs-fio:2026),
aggregated from FEMA NRI, NOAA Storm Events, and USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities:
https://hazards.fema.gov/nri/.
State-level figures are averages (NRI scores) or totals (loss, storm damage) across counties. Fields absent from the underlying data are shown as "—" rather than estimated.
Data exported June 20, 2026 · content hash
4a6c39a01cc1ce5a ·
machine-readable brief: /property/states/tx/context.md