Property Atlas

Natural Hazard & Home-Risk Profile for Tennessee (2026)

What the record shows · 2025

In 2025, NOAA logged 1,965 storm events in Tennessee, causing 17 direct deaths and $54M in recorded property damage.

Dollars say one thing, lives say another. FEMA's risk model, which weights expected-loss dollars, names Earthquake Tennessee's dominant hazard. The 2025 record, which counts lives, points elsewhere: the deadliest force was Tornado (9 deaths). Neither is wrong — they answer different questions.

Adjusted for population (6.9M residents), that's 2.46 storm deaths per million — the 12th-highest of 51 states and DC, against a typical 0.91. (By raw count it ranks 8th of 51, but per-capita is the truer comparison.) This is one storm year, so a single severe event can move the rank — read it as direction, not a precise standing.

Looking forward, FEMA projects $3.0B in expected annual loss across all hazards ; $2.2M in federal mitigation funding has been obligated to date.

RECORDED 2025 events, deaths, damage (NOAA) · DERIVED the cross-state rank & median · MODELED FEMA's dominant hazard & expected loss · INTERPRETATION the two-lens reading.

Last updated: June 20, 2026 · Source: FEMA NRI + NOAA Storm Events + USFS Wildfire Risk + FEMA BRIC/HMGP (2026)

52.5
NRI risk score (avg)
Earthquake
Dominant hazard
$3.0B
Expected annual loss
59.1
Social vulnerability (avg)

FEMA NRI model outputs (county averages). The recorded storm reality is in the verdict above and the per-peril record below.

This page is a reference aggregate of publicly available hazard data. It informs and compares; it does not label Tennessee "safe" or "dangerous" and gives no advice. For county-level detail, parcel assessment, or current conditions, go to FEMA NRI, NOAA Storm Events, or USFS Wildfire Risk.

What is the FEMA NRI risk profile for Tennessee?

The FEMA National Risk Index (NRI) measures expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience at the county level. The composite score runs 0–100, where ~50 is the national midpoint, so a score above 50 sits above the typical U.S. county. The state figures below are averages across 95 counties.

Metric Value
NRI composite risk score (avg) 52.5
Dominant hazard type Earthquake
Expected annual loss (all hazards) $3.0B
Social vulnerability score (avg) 59.1
Community resilience score (avg) 34.4

Source: FEMA NRI + NOAA Storm Events + USFS Wildfire Risk + FEMA BRIC/HMGP (2026). County averages; expected annual loss is the state total.

FEMA mitigation investment in Tennessee

FEMA's Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities (BRIC) and Hazard Mitigation Grant Program (HMGP) fund hazard-mitigation projects. The figures below reflect obligated federal dollars in this dataset.

Metric Value
Mitigation dollars obligated $2.2M
Mitigation sub-applications 29

Source: FEMA NRI + NOAA Storm Events + USFS Wildfire Risk + FEMA BRIC/HMGP (2026) (FEMA BRIC/HMGP component).

Sources & provenance

Every figure on this page comes from FEMA NRI + NOAA Storm Events + USFS Wildfire Risk + FEMA BRIC/HMGP (2026) (source id src:atlas:fema-noaa-usfs-fio:2026), aggregated from FEMA NRI, NOAA Storm Events, and USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities: https://hazards.fema.gov/nri/.

State-level figures are averages (NRI scores) or totals (loss, storm damage) across counties. Fields absent from the underlying data are shown as "—" rather than estimated.

Data exported June 20, 2026 · content hash 98c098c4de515a9b · machine-readable brief: /property/states/tn/context.md

Recorded · NOAA Storm Events

The 2025 record, peril by peril

The recorded receipts behind the verdict above: every peril NOAA logged in Tennessee in 2025, with its events, reported property damage, and direct deaths.

1,965
storm events
$54M
property damage
17
direct deaths
33
direct injuries

All four figures are NOAA-recorded totals for the 2025 storm year — a single recorded year, not a multi-year cumulative.

Tornado was both the deadliest and the costliest peril.

By peril

Every peril that caused a death, ≥$1M in damage, or ≥50 events. Deaths and damage are NOAA's recorded figures for 2025.

Peril Events Property damage Deaths
Tornado 60 $27M 9
Heavy Rain 1 $25K 3
Flash Flood 227 $15M 2
Heat 459 $0 2
Thunderstorm Wind 517 $6M 1
Flood 72 $4M —
Hail 288 $85K —
Excessive Heat 90 $0 —
Winter Storm 77 $0 —
10 other perils 174 $2M —

What these figures are

RECORDED — every number here is a count or sum of events NOAA actually logged in 2025 (occurred). It is the historical record, not a forecast, and not the modeled risk score above. Property-damage figures are NOAA's reported estimates, which can undercount; a peril with events but no damage figure simply had none recorded. Direct deaths/injuries exclude indirect ones. This informs and compares — it is not a safety verdict. See the full event detail at the NOAA Storm Events Database.