name = "Atlas Commons research objects — natural-hazard risk profile for Vermont"
description = "Vermont's natural-hazard risk from public federal sources, with each figure's epistemic status labeled: recorded facts (NOAA storm events, property damage, and deaths for the 2025 storm year) are observations of what occurred; the cross-state rank is derived (an in-house ranking over the recorded single-year totals); rating figures (FEMA expected annual loss, FEMA NRI composite score, social vulnerability and community resilience indices) are models that authorities compute — not direct measurements; the two-lens and boundary notes are interpretation — state-level aggregates, not a verdict on any specific property. Sources: FEMA National Risk Index, NOAA Storm Events Database. CC0."
license = "CC0-1.0"
jsonld = "https://property-atlas.ryanjhunter.workers.dev/property/states/vt.jsonld"

[[claims]]
id = "https://property-atlas.ryanjhunter.workers.dev/property/states/vt/expected-annual-loss"
warrant = "MODELED"
name = "FEMA EXPECTED annual loss from natural hazards in Vermont is $221,195,019 (a modeled expectation)"
text = "The FEMA National Risk Index models an EXPECTED annual loss of $221,195,019 from all natural hazards for Vermont (14 counties, 2026). An annualized expectation of future loss, not a record."
source = "FEMA National Risk Index"
sourceUrl = "https://hazards.fema.gov/nri/"
falsifier = "occurred=FALSE: a MODELED figure — an authority's computed quantity ESTIMATING an independent/latent value (an index or annualized expectation), REPRODUCIBLE from its disclosed inputs, NOT a record of an event. adjudged=TRUE because FEMA National Risk Index (an external authority) computes and publishes it. The grounding promises \"reproduce this from the inputs\" — so a categorical authority VERDICT that is NOT reproducible (a star rating, a risk class) is a 'determination', not 'modeled'. Superseded by the next release."

[[claims]]
id = "https://property-atlas.ryanjhunter.workers.dev/property/states/vt/nri-risk-score"
warrant = "MODELED"
name = "FEMA NRI composite risk SCORE for Vermont is 36.4436/100 (dominant hazard: Landslide)"
text = "The FEMA National Risk Index composite risk score (0-100, county average; ~50 is the national midpoint, so above 50 is above the typical U.S. county) for Vermont is 36.4436. A modeled composite index, not a recorded quantity."
source = "FEMA National Risk Index"
sourceUrl = "https://hazards.fema.gov/nri/"
falsifier = "occurred=FALSE: a MODELED figure — an authority's computed quantity ESTIMATING an independent/latent value (an index or annualized expectation), REPRODUCIBLE from its disclosed inputs, NOT a record of an event. adjudged=TRUE because FEMA National Risk Index (an external authority) computes and publishes it. The grounding promises \"reproduce this from the inputs\" — so a categorical authority VERDICT that is NOT reproducible (a star rating, a risk class) is a 'determination', not 'modeled'. Superseded by the next release."

[[claims]]
id = "https://property-atlas.ryanjhunter.workers.dev/property/states/vt/social-vulnerability"
warrant = "MODELED"
name = "FEMA NRI social vulnerability SCORE for Vermont is 19.4179/100 (a modeled index of who bears the risk)"
text = "The FEMA National Risk Index social vulnerability score (0–100, county average; built on the CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index) for Vermont is 19.4179. A modeled composite of the social conditions that worsen a community's hazard outcomes — not a record of harm, and not a judgment of any person."
source = "FEMA National Risk Index (CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index)"
sourceUrl = "https://hazards.fema.gov/nri/"
falsifier = "occurred=FALSE: a MODELED figure — an authority's computed quantity ESTIMATING an independent/latent value (an index or annualized expectation), REPRODUCIBLE from its disclosed inputs, NOT a record of an event. adjudged=TRUE because FEMA National Risk Index (CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index) (an external authority) computes and publishes it. The grounding promises \"reproduce this from the inputs\" — so a categorical authority VERDICT that is NOT reproducible (a star rating, a risk class) is a 'determination', not 'modeled'. Superseded by the next release."

[[claims]]
id = "https://property-atlas.ryanjhunter.workers.dev/property/states/vt/community-resilience"
warrant = "MODELED"
name = "FEMA NRI community resilience SCORE for Vermont is 77.6309/100 (a modeled index of the capacity to absorb and recover)"
text = "The FEMA National Risk Index community resilience score (0–100, county average; built on the HVRI Baseline Resilience Indicators for Communities) for Vermont is 77.6309. A modeled composite of a community's capacity to prepare for, absorb, and recover from hazards — not a measured outcome."
source = "FEMA National Risk Index (HVRI Baseline Resilience Indicators for Communities)"
sourceUrl = "https://hazards.fema.gov/nri/"
falsifier = "occurred=FALSE: a MODELED figure — an authority's computed quantity ESTIMATING an independent/latent value (an index or annualized expectation), REPRODUCIBLE from its disclosed inputs, NOT a record of an event. adjudged=TRUE because FEMA National Risk Index (HVRI Baseline Resilience Indicators for Communities) (an external authority) computes and publishes it. The grounding promises \"reproduce this from the inputs\" — so a categorical authority VERDICT that is NOT reproducible (a star rating, a risk class) is a 'determination', not 'modeled'. Superseded by the next release."

[[claims]]
id = "https://property-atlas.ryanjhunter.workers.dev/property/states/vt/noaa-recorded-totals"
warrant = "RECORDED"
name = "NOAA recorded 268 storm events in Vermont in 2025: $2,040,500 property damage, 0 direct deaths"
text = "The NOAA Storm Events Database records 268 storm events that occurred in Vermont in 2025, with $2,040,500 in reported property damage, 0 direct deaths, and 0 direct injuries, across 14 distinct peril types. These are RECORDED occurrences (occurred=true) — the historical event log, NOT the modeled FEMA risk score above. Damage figures are NOAA's reported estimates and can undercount."
source = "NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database"
sourceUrl = "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/stormevents/"
falsifier = "A RECORD of measured/reported events (occurred=true) from NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database; superseded when NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database publishes its next release."

[[claims]]
id = "https://property-atlas.ryanjhunter.workers.dev/property/states/vt/noaa-deadliest-peril"
warrant = "RECORDED"
name = "Flash Flood was the most consequential recorded peril in Vermont in 2025 (0 deaths, $1,591,000)"
text = "Of all peril types NOAA recorded in Vermont in 2025, Flash Flood caused the most direct deaths (0) across 11 events, with $1,591,000 in reported property damage. A recorded ranking within the actual event log (occurred=true), not a forecast of future perils."
source = "NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database"
sourceUrl = "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/stormevents/"
falsifier = "A RECORD of measured/reported events (occurred=true) from NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database; superseded when NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database publishes its next release."

[[claims]]
id = "https://property-atlas.ryanjhunter.workers.dev/property/states/vt/boundary"
warrant = "INTERPRETATION"
name = "What this risk profile is — and is NOT — for Vermont (the epistemic boundary)"
text = "Every figure above is an official state-level figure from a named public authority (measured or rating, as labeled). They do NOT advise on a specific property's insurability, value, or whether to buy or insure it. For a property-level answer, use the FEMA Map Service Center and a licensed insurance producer."
source = "Property Atlas framing (over the FEMA/NOAA figures above)"
sourceUrl = "https://property-atlas.ryanjhunter.workers.dev/"
falsifier = "occurred=FALSE (a framing, not an event) and adjudged=FALSE (the atlas's boundary, not an authority's verdict) — the LOWEST-warrant claim here. The measured figures (NOAA storm loss) and the rating figures (FEMA expected loss, NRI score) above are each grounded; this is the only context note, and the four-status says so."

[[riskIndicators]]
indicator = "NRI composite risk score (0–100)"
value = 36.4436
warrant = "MODELED"
source = "FEMA NRI"

[[riskIndicators]]
indicator = "Dominant hazard"
value = "Landslide"
warrant = "MODELED"
source = "FEMA NRI"

[[riskIndicators]]
indicator = "Expected annual loss (USD/yr)"
value = 221195019
warrant = "MODELED"
source = "FEMA NRI"

[[riskIndicators]]
indicator = "Counties in aggregate"
value = 14
warrant = "—"
source = "FEMA NRI"

[[riskIndicators]]
indicator = "Social vulnerability (0–100)"
value = 19.4179
warrant = "MODELED"
source = "FEMA NRI · CDC/ATSDR SVI"

[[riskIndicators]]
indicator = "Community resilience (0–100)"
value = 77.6309
warrant = "MODELED"
source = "FEMA NRI · HVRI BRIC"

[[riskIndicators]]
indicator = "Storm property damage (USD)"
value = 2040500
warrant = "RECORDED"
source = "NOAA Storm Events"

[[riskIndicators]]
indicator = "Storm events recorded"
value = 268
warrant = "RECORDED"
source = "NOAA Storm Events"

[[riskIndicators]]
indicator = "Storm direct deaths"
value = 0
warrant = "RECORDED"
source = "NOAA Storm Events"

[[riskIndicators]]
indicator = "Mitigation dollars obligated (USD)"
value = 3550482
warrant = "RECORDED"
source = "FEMA BRIC/HMGP"

[[riskIndicators]]
indicator = "Mitigation sub-applications"
value = 85
warrant = "RECORDED"
source = "FEMA BRIC/HMGP"

[[recordedPerils]]
peril = "Flash Flood"
events = 11
deaths = 0
injuries = 0
property_damage_usd = 1591000

[[recordedPerils]]
peril = "Thunderstorm Wind"
events = 27
deaths = 0
injuries = 0
property_damage_usd = 268000

[[recordedPerils]]
peril = "High Wind"
events = 9
deaths = 0
injuries = 0
property_damage_usd = 110000

[[recordedPerils]]
peril = "Flood"
events = 2
deaths = 0
injuries = 0
property_damage_usd = 50000

[[recordedPerils]]
peril = "Hail"
events = 12
deaths = 0
injuries = 0
property_damage_usd = 20000

[[recordedPerils]]
peril = "Strong Wind"
events = 3
deaths = 0
injuries = 0
property_damage_usd = 1500

[[recordedPerils]]
peril = "Winter Weather"
events = 137
deaths = 0
injuries = 0
property_damage_usd = 0

[[recordedPerils]]
peril = "Winter Storm"
events = 48
deaths = 0
injuries = 0
property_damage_usd = 0

[[recordedPerils]]
peril = "Heat"
events = 17
deaths = 0
injuries = 0
property_damage_usd = 0

[[recordedPerils]]
peril = "Ice Storm"
events = 2
deaths = 0
injuries = 0
property_damage_usd = 0

[[recordedPerils]]
peril = "Extreme Cold/Wind Chill"
events = 0
deaths = 0
injuries = 0
property_damage_usd = 0

[[recordedPerils]]
peril = "Excessive Heat"
events = 0
deaths = 0
injuries = 0
property_damage_usd = 0

[[recordedPerils]]
peril = "Cold/Wind Chill"
events = 0
deaths = 0
injuries = 0
property_damage_usd = 0

[[recordedPerils]]
peril = "Drought"
events = 0
deaths = 0
injuries = 0
property_damage_usd = 0
