---
title: Atlas Commons research objects — natural-hazard risk profile for Vermont
license: CC0-1.0
source: FEMA National Risk Index
---

# Atlas Commons research objects — natural-hazard risk profile for Vermont

Vermont's natural-hazard risk from public federal sources, with each figure's epistemic status labeled: recorded facts (NOAA storm events, property damage, and deaths for the 2025 storm year) are observations of what occurred; the cross-state rank is derived (an in-house ranking over the recorded single-year totals); rating figures (FEMA expected annual loss, FEMA NRI composite score, social vulnerability and community resilience indices) are models that authorities compute — not direct measurements; the two-lens and boundary notes are interpretation — state-level aggregates, not a verdict on any specific property. Sources: FEMA National Risk Index, NOAA Storm Events Database. CC0.

## Claims

### FEMA EXPECTED annual loss from natural hazards in Vermont is $221,195,019 (a modeled expectation)

**MODELED.** The FEMA National Risk Index models an EXPECTED annual loss of $221,195,019 from all natural hazards for Vermont (14 counties, 2026). An annualized expectation of future loss, not a record.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index — https://hazards.fema.gov/nri/
Falsifier: occurred=FALSE: a MODELED figure — an authority's computed quantity ESTIMATING an independent/latent value (an index or annualized expectation), REPRODUCIBLE from its disclosed inputs, NOT a record of an event. adjudged=TRUE because FEMA National Risk Index (an external authority) computes and publishes it. The grounding promises "reproduce this from the inputs" — so a categorical authority VERDICT that is NOT reproducible (a star rating, a risk class) is a 'determination', not 'modeled'. Superseded by the next release.

### FEMA NRI composite risk SCORE for Vermont is 36.4436/100 (dominant hazard: Landslide)

**MODELED.** The FEMA National Risk Index composite risk score (0-100, county average; ~50 is the national midpoint, so above 50 is above the typical U.S. county) for Vermont is 36.4436. A modeled composite index, not a recorded quantity.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index — https://hazards.fema.gov/nri/
Falsifier: occurred=FALSE: a MODELED figure — an authority's computed quantity ESTIMATING an independent/latent value (an index or annualized expectation), REPRODUCIBLE from its disclosed inputs, NOT a record of an event. adjudged=TRUE because FEMA National Risk Index (an external authority) computes and publishes it. The grounding promises "reproduce this from the inputs" — so a categorical authority VERDICT that is NOT reproducible (a star rating, a risk class) is a 'determination', not 'modeled'. Superseded by the next release.

### FEMA NRI social vulnerability SCORE for Vermont is 19.4179/100 (a modeled index of who bears the risk)

**MODELED.** The FEMA National Risk Index social vulnerability score (0–100, county average; built on the CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index) for Vermont is 19.4179. A modeled composite of the social conditions that worsen a community's hazard outcomes — not a record of harm, and not a judgment of any person.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index (CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index) — https://hazards.fema.gov/nri/
Falsifier: occurred=FALSE: a MODELED figure — an authority's computed quantity ESTIMATING an independent/latent value (an index or annualized expectation), REPRODUCIBLE from its disclosed inputs, NOT a record of an event. adjudged=TRUE because FEMA National Risk Index (CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index) (an external authority) computes and publishes it. The grounding promises "reproduce this from the inputs" — so a categorical authority VERDICT that is NOT reproducible (a star rating, a risk class) is a 'determination', not 'modeled'. Superseded by the next release.

### FEMA NRI community resilience SCORE for Vermont is 77.6309/100 (a modeled index of the capacity to absorb and recover)

**MODELED.** The FEMA National Risk Index community resilience score (0–100, county average; built on the HVRI Baseline Resilience Indicators for Communities) for Vermont is 77.6309. A modeled composite of a community's capacity to prepare for, absorb, and recover from hazards — not a measured outcome.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index (HVRI Baseline Resilience Indicators for Communities) — https://hazards.fema.gov/nri/
Falsifier: occurred=FALSE: a MODELED figure — an authority's computed quantity ESTIMATING an independent/latent value (an index or annualized expectation), REPRODUCIBLE from its disclosed inputs, NOT a record of an event. adjudged=TRUE because FEMA National Risk Index (HVRI Baseline Resilience Indicators for Communities) (an external authority) computes and publishes it. The grounding promises "reproduce this from the inputs" — so a categorical authority VERDICT that is NOT reproducible (a star rating, a risk class) is a 'determination', not 'modeled'. Superseded by the next release.

### NOAA recorded 268 storm events in Vermont in 2025: $2,040,500 property damage, 0 direct deaths

**RECORDED.** The NOAA Storm Events Database records 268 storm events that occurred in Vermont in 2025, with $2,040,500 in reported property damage, 0 direct deaths, and 0 direct injuries, across 14 distinct peril types. These are RECORDED occurrences (occurred=true) — the historical event log, NOT the modeled FEMA risk score above. Damage figures are NOAA's reported estimates and can undercount.

Source: NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database — https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/stormevents/
Falsifier: A RECORD of measured/reported events (occurred=true) from NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database; superseded when NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database publishes its next release.

### Flash Flood was the most consequential recorded peril in Vermont in 2025 (0 deaths, $1,591,000)

**RECORDED.** Of all peril types NOAA recorded in Vermont in 2025, Flash Flood caused the most direct deaths (0) across 11 events, with $1,591,000 in reported property damage. A recorded ranking within the actual event log (occurred=true), not a forecast of future perils.

Source: NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database — https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/stormevents/
Falsifier: A RECORD of measured/reported events (occurred=true) from NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database; superseded when NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database publishes its next release.

### What this risk profile is — and is NOT — for Vermont (the epistemic boundary)

**INTERPRETATION.** Every figure above is an official state-level figure from a named public authority (measured or rating, as labeled). They do NOT advise on a specific property's insurability, value, or whether to buy or insure it. For a property-level answer, use the FEMA Map Service Center and a licensed insurance producer.

Source: Property Atlas framing (over the FEMA/NOAA figures above) — https://property-atlas.ryanjhunter.workers.dev/
Falsifier: occurred=FALSE (a framing, not an event) and adjudged=FALSE (the atlas's boundary, not an authority's verdict) — the LOWEST-warrant claim here. The measured figures (NOAA storm loss) and the rating figures (FEMA expected loss, NRI score) above are each grounded; this is the only context note, and the four-status says so.

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Every claim above carries a four-status warrant (RECORDED / MODELED / DERIVED / INTERPRETATION) and a named source you can re-fetch — this is a research object, not a flat fact. Structured: `https://property-atlas.ryanjhunter.workers.dev/property/states/vt.jsonld`

## Data

### Vermont — every risk indicator (typed)

Each official figure for this state with its four-status warrant and named source. MODELED = an authority's computed index or expectation; RECORDED = an observed total.

| indicator | value | warrant | source |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| NRI composite risk score (0–100) | 36.4436 | MODELED | FEMA NRI |
| Dominant hazard | Landslide | MODELED | FEMA NRI |
| Expected annual loss (USD/yr) | 221195019 | MODELED | FEMA NRI |
| Counties in aggregate | 14 | — | FEMA NRI |
| Social vulnerability (0–100) | 19.4179 | MODELED | FEMA NRI · CDC/ATSDR SVI |
| Community resilience (0–100) | 77.6309 | MODELED | FEMA NRI · HVRI BRIC |
| Storm property damage (USD) | 2040500 | RECORDED | NOAA Storm Events |
| Storm events recorded | 268 | RECORDED | NOAA Storm Events |
| Storm direct deaths | 0 | RECORDED | NOAA Storm Events |
| Mitigation dollars obligated (USD) | 3550482 | RECORDED | FEMA BRIC/HMGP |
| Mitigation sub-applications | 85 | RECORDED | FEMA BRIC/HMGP |

### Vermont — recorded storm perils (NOAA, 2025)

RECORDED occurrences from the NOAA Storm Events log — direct deaths only; damage is NOAA's reported estimate; a bounded single-period record, not a forecast.

| peril | events | deaths | injuries | property_damage_usd |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Flash Flood | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1591000 |
| Thunderstorm Wind | 27 | 0 | 0 | 268000 |
| High Wind | 9 | 0 | 0 | 110000 |
| Flood | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50000 |
| Hail | 12 | 0 | 0 | 20000 |
| Strong Wind | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1500 |
| Winter Weather | 137 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Winter Storm | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Heat | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ice Storm | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Extreme Cold/Wind Chill | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Excessive Heat | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cold/Wind Chill | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Drought | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |