{ "@context": { "schema": "https://schema.org/", "au": "https://property-atlas.ryanjhunter.workers.dev/vocab/agent-native#", "@vocab": "https://schema.org/", "claims": { "@id": "au:claims", "@container": "@list" }, "epistemicStatus": "au:epistemicStatus", "occurred": "au:occurred", "supported": "au:supported", "adjudged": "au:adjudged", "operative": "au:operative", "grounding": "au:grounding", "groundingType": "au:groundingType", "adjudicator": "au:adjudicator", "source": "au:source", "sourceUrl": "au:sourceUrl", "value": "au:value", "claimType": "au:claimType", "reviewStatus": "au:reviewStatus", "commercialInfluence": "au:commercialInfluence", "falsifier": "au:falsifier" }, "@id": "https://property-atlas.ryanjhunter.workers.dev/property/states/va.jsonld", "@type": "schema:Dataset", "name": "Atlas Commons research objects — natural-hazard risk profile for Virginia", "description": "Virginia's natural-hazard risk from public federal sources, with each figure's epistemic status labeled: recorded facts (NOAA storm events, property damage, and deaths for the 2025 storm year) are observations of what occurred; the cross-state rank is derived (an in-house ranking over the recorded single-year totals); rating figures (FEMA expected annual loss, FEMA NRI composite score, social vulnerability and community resilience indices) are models that authorities compute — not direct measurements; the two-lens and boundary notes are interpretation — state-level aggregates, not a verdict on any specific property. Sources: FEMA National Risk Index, NOAA Storm Events Database. CC0.", "license": "https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/", "isPartOf": "https://property-atlas.ryanjhunter.workers.dev/", "rdfs:isDefinedBy": "https://property-atlas.ryanjhunter.workers.dev/vocab/agent-native", "seeAlso": "https://agenticu.ryanjhunter.workers.dev/commons/the-research-object", "about": { "@type": "schema:Place", "name": "Virginia", "identifier": "VA" }, "claims": [ { "@id": "https://property-atlas.ryanjhunter.workers.dev/property/states/va/expected-annual-loss", "@type": "schema:Claim", "name": "FEMA EXPECTED annual loss from natural hazards in Virginia is $1,978,547,466 (a modeled expectation)", "text": "The FEMA National Risk Index models an EXPECTED annual loss of $1,978,547,466 from all natural hazards for Virginia (133 counties, 2026). An annualized expectation of future loss, not a record.", "claimType": "derived_measure", "reviewStatus": "current", "commercialInfluence": false, "epistemicStatus": { "occurred": false, "supported": true, "adjudged": true, "operative": true }, "grounding": { "groundingType": "DerivedMeasure", "source": "FEMA National Risk Index", "sourceUrl": "https://hazards.fema.gov/nri/", "value": "$1,978,547,466", "adjudicator": { "name": "FEMA National Risk Index", "url": "https://hazards.fema.gov/nri/" } }, "falsifier": "occurred=FALSE: a MODELED figure — an authority's computed quantity ESTIMATING an independent/latent value (an index or annualized expectation), REPRODUCIBLE from its disclosed inputs, NOT a record of an event. adjudged=TRUE because FEMA National Risk Index (an external authority) computes and publishes it. The grounding promises \"reproduce this from the inputs\" — so a categorical authority VERDICT that is NOT reproducible (a star rating, a risk class) is a 'determination', not 'modeled'. Superseded by the next release." }, { "@id": "https://property-atlas.ryanjhunter.workers.dev/property/states/va/nri-risk-score", "@type": "schema:Claim", "name": "FEMA NRI composite risk SCORE for Virginia is 33.2692/100 (dominant hazard: Hurricane)", "text": "The FEMA National Risk Index composite risk score (0-100, county average; ~50 is the national midpoint, so above 50 is above the typical U.S. county) for Virginia is 33.2692. A modeled composite index, not a recorded quantity.", "claimType": "derived_measure", "reviewStatus": "current", "commercialInfluence": false, "epistemicStatus": { "occurred": false, "supported": true, "adjudged": true, "operative": true }, "grounding": { "groundingType": "DerivedMeasure", "source": "FEMA National Risk Index", "sourceUrl": "https://hazards.fema.gov/nri/", "value": "33.2692/100", "adjudicator": { "name": "FEMA National Risk Index", "url": "https://hazards.fema.gov/nri/" } }, "falsifier": "occurred=FALSE: a MODELED figure — an authority's computed quantity ESTIMATING an independent/latent value (an index or annualized expectation), REPRODUCIBLE from its disclosed inputs, NOT a record of an event. adjudged=TRUE because FEMA National Risk Index (an external authority) computes and publishes it. The grounding promises \"reproduce this from the inputs\" — so a categorical authority VERDICT that is NOT reproducible (a star rating, a risk class) is a 'determination', not 'modeled'. Superseded by the next release." }, { "@id": "https://property-atlas.ryanjhunter.workers.dev/property/states/va/social-vulnerability", "@type": "schema:Claim", "name": "FEMA NRI social vulnerability SCORE for Virginia is 47.9443/100 (a modeled index of who bears the risk)", "text": "The FEMA National Risk Index social vulnerability score (0–100, county average; built on the CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index) for Virginia is 47.9443. A modeled composite of the social conditions that worsen a community's hazard outcomes — not a record of harm, and not a judgment of any person.", "claimType": "derived_measure", "reviewStatus": "current", "commercialInfluence": false, "epistemicStatus": { "occurred": false, "supported": true, "adjudged": true, "operative": true }, "grounding": { "groundingType": "DerivedMeasure", "source": "FEMA National Risk Index (CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index)", "sourceUrl": "https://hazards.fema.gov/nri/", "value": "47.9443/100", "adjudicator": { "name": "FEMA National Risk Index (CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index)", "url": "https://hazards.fema.gov/nri/" } }, "falsifier": "occurred=FALSE: a MODELED figure — an authority's computed quantity ESTIMATING an independent/latent value (an index or annualized expectation), REPRODUCIBLE from its disclosed inputs, NOT a record of an event. adjudged=TRUE because FEMA National Risk Index (CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index) (an external authority) computes and publishes it. The grounding promises \"reproduce this from the inputs\" — so a categorical authority VERDICT that is NOT reproducible (a star rating, a risk class) is a 'determination', not 'modeled'. Superseded by the next release." }, { "@id": "https://property-atlas.ryanjhunter.workers.dev/property/states/va/community-resilience", "@type": "schema:Claim", "name": "FEMA NRI community resilience SCORE for Virginia is 54.4343/100 (a modeled index of the capacity to absorb and recover)", "text": "The FEMA National Risk Index community resilience score (0–100, county average; built on the HVRI Baseline Resilience Indicators for Communities) for Virginia is 54.4343. A modeled composite of a community's capacity to prepare for, absorb, and recover from hazards — not a measured outcome.", "claimType": "derived_measure", "reviewStatus": "current", "commercialInfluence": false, "epistemicStatus": { "occurred": false, "supported": true, "adjudged": true, "operative": true }, "grounding": { "groundingType": "DerivedMeasure", "source": "FEMA National Risk Index (HVRI Baseline Resilience Indicators for Communities)", "sourceUrl": "https://hazards.fema.gov/nri/", "value": "54.4343/100", "adjudicator": { "name": "FEMA National Risk Index (HVRI Baseline Resilience Indicators for Communities)", "url": "https://hazards.fema.gov/nri/" } }, "falsifier": "occurred=FALSE: a MODELED figure — an authority's computed quantity ESTIMATING an independent/latent value (an index or annualized expectation), REPRODUCIBLE from its disclosed inputs, NOT a record of an event. adjudged=TRUE because FEMA National Risk Index (HVRI Baseline Resilience Indicators for Communities) (an external authority) computes and publishes it. The grounding promises \"reproduce this from the inputs\" — so a categorical authority VERDICT that is NOT reproducible (a star rating, a risk class) is a 'determination', not 'modeled'. Superseded by the next release." }, { "@id": "https://property-atlas.ryanjhunter.workers.dev/property/states/va/noaa-recorded-totals", "@type": "schema:Claim", "name": "NOAA recorded 2,242 storm events in Virginia in 2025: $24,750,450 property damage, 7 direct deaths", "text": "The NOAA Storm Events Database records 2,242 storm events that occurred in Virginia in 2025, with $24,750,450 in reported property damage, 7 direct deaths, and 6 direct injuries, across 24 distinct peril types. These are RECORDED occurrences (occurred=true) — the historical event log, NOT the modeled FEMA risk score above. Damage figures are NOAA's reported estimates and can undercount.", "claimType": "official_fact", "reviewStatus": "current", "commercialInfluence": false, "epistemicStatus": { "occurred": true, "supported": true, "adjudged": true, "operative": true }, "grounding": { "groundingType": "SourceCitation", "source": "NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database", "sourceUrl": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/stormevents/", "value": "2242 events / $24,750,450 / 7 deaths (2025)", "adjudicator": { "name": "NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database", "url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/stormevents/" } }, "falsifier": "A RECORD of measured/reported events (occurred=true) from NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database; superseded when NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database publishes its next release." }, { "@id": "https://property-atlas.ryanjhunter.workers.dev/property/states/va/noaa-deadliest-peril", "@type": "schema:Claim", "name": "Flash Flood was the most consequential recorded peril in Virginia in 2025 (2 deaths, $16,995,500)", "text": "Of all peril types NOAA recorded in Virginia in 2025, Flash Flood caused the most direct deaths (2) across 485 events, with $16,995,500 in reported property damage. A recorded ranking within the actual event log (occurred=true), not a forecast of future perils.", "claimType": "official_fact", "reviewStatus": "current", "commercialInfluence": false, "epistemicStatus": { "occurred": true, "supported": true, "adjudged": true, "operative": true }, "grounding": { "groundingType": "SourceCitation", "source": "NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database", "sourceUrl": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/stormevents/", "value": "Flash Flood: 2 deaths / $16,995,500", "adjudicator": { "name": "NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database", "url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/stormevents/" } }, "falsifier": "A RECORD of measured/reported events (occurred=true) from NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database; superseded when NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database publishes its next release." }, { "@id": "https://property-atlas.ryanjhunter.workers.dev/property/states/va/national-death-rank", "@type": "schema:Claim", "name": "Virginia's 2025 storm deaths are 0.81 per million residents — 28th of 51 states population-normalized (raw count: 18th of 51)", "text": "Normalized for population, Virginia's 7 direct storm deaths in 2025 are 0.81 per million residents — the 28th-highest of 51 states, against a typical state's 0.91. The raw count ranks 18th of 51, but per-capita de-confounds state size and is the truer cross-state comparison. In-house rankings over NOAA's recorded single-year counts (occurred=false as a ranking, adjudged=false); population is the Census resident total summed from counties.", "claimType": "derived_measure", "reviewStatus": "current", "commercialInfluence": false, "epistemicStatus": { "occurred": false, "supported": true, "adjudged": false, "operative": true }, "grounding": { "groundingType": "DerivedMeasure", "source": "Property Atlas — population-normalized rank within the recorded single-year state death distribution", "sourceUrl": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/stormevents/", "value": "0.81/million, 28th of 51 (raw 18th of 51)", "adjudicator": null }, "falsifier": "occurred=FALSE (a calculation, not an event) and adjudged=FALSE (a transparent in-house formula, not an authority's verdict — no external adjudicator). Reproduce it from its named inputs; falsified if the formula or inputs are wrong. Lower warrant than the adjudged figures above." }, { "@id": "https://property-atlas.ryanjhunter.workers.dev/property/states/va/two-lens-model-vs-record", "@type": "schema:Claim", "name": "Model and record diverge in Virginia: FEMA's dollar-weighted dominant hazard is Hurricane; the 2025 deadliest force was Flash Flood", "text": "FEMA's National Risk Index, weighting expected-loss DOLLARS, names Hurricane Virginia's dominant hazard. The 2025 NOAA record, weighting LIVES, shows Flash Flood as the deadliest force. Both are correct for the question they answer — dollars and lives are different lenses on the same place. This is the atlas's reading (occurred=false, adjudged=false), not a claim that either authority is wrong.", "claimType": "interpretation", "reviewStatus": "current", "commercialInfluence": false, "epistemicStatus": { "occurred": false, "supported": true, "adjudged": false, "operative": true }, "grounding": { "groundingType": "Interpretation", "source": "Property Atlas framing (over the FEMA model and the NOAA record above)", "sourceUrl": "https://property-atlas.ryanjhunter.workers.dev/", "value": "dollars → Hurricane; lives → Flash Flood", "adjudicator": null }, "falsifier": "occurred=FALSE (a framing, not an event) and adjudged=FALSE (the atlas's reading, not a FEMA or NOAA verdict). The FEMA dominant hazard (modeled) and the deadliest recorded peril (recorded) above are each grounded; this two-lens contrast is the interpretation that joins them." }, { "@id": "https://property-atlas.ryanjhunter.workers.dev/property/states/va/boundary", "@type": "schema:Claim", "name": "What this risk profile is — and is NOT — for Virginia (the epistemic boundary)", "text": "Every figure above is an official state-level figure from a named public authority (measured or rating, as labeled). They do NOT advise on a specific property's insurability, value, or whether to buy or insure it. For a property-level answer, use the FEMA Map Service Center and a licensed insurance producer.", "claimType": "interpretation", "reviewStatus": "current", "commercialInfluence": false, "epistemicStatus": { "occurred": false, "supported": true, "adjudged": false, "operative": true }, "grounding": { "groundingType": "Interpretation", "source": "Property Atlas framing (over the FEMA/NOAA figures above)", "sourceUrl": "https://property-atlas.ryanjhunter.workers.dev/", "value": "state-level figures; route to FEMA MSC + a licensed producer for property-level decisions", "adjudicator": null }, "falsifier": "occurred=FALSE (a framing, not an event) and adjudged=FALSE (the atlas's boundary, not an authority's verdict) — the LOWEST-warrant claim here. The measured figures (NOAA storm loss) and the rating figures (FEMA expected loss, NRI score) above are each grounded; this is the only context note, and the four-status says so." } ], "hasPart": [ { "@type": "schema:ItemList", "name": "Virginia — every risk indicator (typed)", "numberOfItems": 11, "itemListElement": [ { "@type": "schema:ListItem", "position": 1, "item": { "indicator": "NRI composite risk score (0–100)", "value": 33.2692, "warrant": "MODELED", "source": "FEMA NRI" } }, { "@type": "schema:ListItem", "position": 2, "item": { "indicator": "Dominant hazard", "value": "Hurricane", "warrant": "MODELED", "source": "FEMA NRI" } }, { "@type": "schema:ListItem", "position": 3, "item": { "indicator": "Expected annual loss (USD/yr)", "value": 1978547466, "warrant": "MODELED", "source": "FEMA NRI" } }, { "@type": "schema:ListItem", "position": 4, "item": { "indicator": "Counties in aggregate", "value": 133, "warrant": "—", "source": "FEMA NRI" } }, { "@type": "schema:ListItem", "position": 5, "item": { "indicator": "Social vulnerability (0–100)", "value": 47.9443, "warrant": "MODELED", "source": "FEMA NRI · CDC/ATSDR SVI" } }, { "@type": "schema:ListItem", "position": 6, "item": { "indicator": "Community resilience (0–100)", "value": 54.4343, "warrant": "MODELED", "source": "FEMA NRI · HVRI BRIC" } }, { "@type": "schema:ListItem", "position": 7, "item": { "indicator": "Storm property damage (USD)", "value": 24750450, "warrant": "RECORDED", "source": "NOAA Storm Events" } }, { "@type": "schema:ListItem", "position": 8, "item": { "indicator": "Storm events recorded", "value": 2242, "warrant": "RECORDED", "source": "NOAA Storm Events" } }, { "@type": "schema:ListItem", "position": 9, "item": { "indicator": "Storm direct deaths", "value": 7, "warrant": "RECORDED", "source": "NOAA Storm Events" } }, { "@type": "schema:ListItem", "position": 10, "item": { "indicator": "Mitigation dollars obligated (USD)", "value": 39626234, "warrant": "RECORDED", "source": "FEMA BRIC/HMGP" } }, { "@type": "schema:ListItem", "position": 11, "item": { "indicator": "Mitigation sub-applications", "value": 139, "warrant": "RECORDED", "source": "FEMA BRIC/HMGP" } } ] }, { "@type": "schema:ItemList", "name": "Virginia — recorded storm perils (NOAA, 2025)", "numberOfItems": 24, "itemListElement": [ { "@type": "schema:ListItem", "position": 1, "item": { "peril": "Flash Flood", "events": 485, "deaths": 2, "injuries": 0, "property_damage_usd": 16995500 } }, { "@type": "schema:ListItem", "position": 2, "item": { "peril": "Thunderstorm Wind", "events": 1058, "deaths": 2, "injuries": 3, "property_damage_usd": 5402250 } }, { "@type": "schema:ListItem", "position": 3, "item": { "peril": "Rip Current", "events": 1, "deaths": 2, "injuries": 2, "property_damage_usd": 0 } }, { "@type": "schema:ListItem", "position": 4, "item": { "peril": "Heat", "events": 1, "deaths": 1, "injuries": 0, "property_damage_usd": 0 } }, { "@type": "schema:ListItem", "position": 5, "item": { "peril": "Winter Storm", "events": 147, "deaths": 0, "injuries": 0, "property_damage_usd": 1017500 } }, { "@type": "schema:ListItem", "position": 6, "item": { "peril": "Coastal Flood", "events": 58, "deaths": 0, "injuries": 0, "property_damage_usd": 440000 } }, { "@type": "schema:ListItem", "position": 7, "item": { "peril": "High Wind", "events": 63, "deaths": 0, "injuries": 0, "property_damage_usd": 371000 } }, { "@type": "schema:ListItem", "position": 8, "item": { "peril": "Lightning", "events": 15, "deaths": 0, "injuries": 0, "property_damage_usd": 259200 } }, { "@type": "schema:ListItem", "position": 9, "item": { "peril": "Tornado", "events": 3, "deaths": 0, "injuries": 0, "property_damage_usd": 99000 } }, { "@type": "schema:ListItem", "position": 10, "item": { "peril": "Flood", "events": 100, "deaths": 0, "injuries": 0, "property_damage_usd": 66000 } }, { "@type": "schema:ListItem", "position": 11, "item": { "peril": "Heavy Snow", "events": 48, "deaths": 0, "injuries": 0, "property_damage_usd": 35000 } }, { "@type": "schema:ListItem", "position": 12, "item": { "peril": "Hail", "events": 58, "deaths": 0, "injuries": 0, "property_damage_usd": 26000 } }, { "@type": "schema:ListItem", "position": 13, "item": { "peril": "Strong Wind", "events": 9, "deaths": 0, "injuries": 1, "property_damage_usd": 18500 } }, { "@type": "schema:ListItem", "position": 14, "item": { "peril": "Debris Flow", "events": 3, "deaths": 0, "injuries": 0, "property_damage_usd": 15000 } }, { "@type": "schema:ListItem", "position": 15, "item": { "peril": "Avalanche", "events": 1, "deaths": 0, "injuries": 0, "property_damage_usd": 3500 } }, { "@type": "schema:ListItem", "position": 16, "item": { "peril": "Winter Weather", "events": 95, "deaths": 0, "injuries": 0, "property_damage_usd": 1000 } }, { "@type": "schema:ListItem", "position": 17, "item": { "peril": "Astronomical Low Tide", "events": 6, "deaths": 0, "injuries": 0, "property_damage_usd": 1000 } }, { "@type": "schema:ListItem", "position": 18, "item": { "peril": "Excessive Heat", "events": 63, "deaths": 0, "injuries": 0, "property_damage_usd": 0 } }, { "@type": "schema:ListItem", "position": 19, "item": { "peril": "Cold/Wind Chill", "events": 15, "deaths": 0, "injuries": 0, "property_damage_usd": 0 } }, { "@type": "schema:ListItem", "position": 20, "item": { "peril": "Heavy Rain", "events": 9, "deaths": 0, "injuries": 0, "property_damage_usd": 0 } }, { "@type": "schema:ListItem", "position": 21, "item": { "peril": "Funnel Cloud", "events": 3, "deaths": 0, "injuries": 0, "property_damage_usd": 0 } }, { "@type": "schema:ListItem", "position": 22, "item": { "peril": "Extreme Cold/Wind Chill", "events": 1, "deaths": 0, "injuries": 0, "property_damage_usd": 0 } }, { "@type": "schema:ListItem", "position": 23, "item": { "peril": "Ice Storm", "events": 0, "deaths": 0, "injuries": 0, "property_damage_usd": 0 } }, { "@type": "schema:ListItem", "position": 24, "item": { "peril": "Tropical Storm", "events": 0, "deaths": 0, "injuries": 0, "property_damage_usd": 0 } } ] } ] }