name = "Atlas Commons research objects — natural-hazard risk profile for Utah"
description = "Utah's natural-hazard risk from public federal sources, with each figure's epistemic status labeled: recorded facts (NOAA storm events, property damage, and deaths for the 2025 storm year) are observations of what occurred; the cross-state rank is derived (an in-house ranking over the recorded single-year totals); rating figures (FEMA expected annual loss, FEMA NRI composite score, social vulnerability and community resilience indices) are models that authorities compute — not direct measurements; the two-lens and boundary notes are interpretation — state-level aggregates, not a verdict on any specific property. Sources: FEMA National Risk Index, NOAA Storm Events Database. CC0."
license = "CC0-1.0"
jsonld = "https://property-atlas.ryanjhunter.workers.dev/property/states/ut.jsonld"

[[claims]]
id = "https://property-atlas.ryanjhunter.workers.dev/property/states/ut/expected-annual-loss"
warrant = "MODELED"
name = "FEMA EXPECTED annual loss from natural hazards in Utah is $1,578,020,817 (a modeled expectation)"
text = "The FEMA National Risk Index models an EXPECTED annual loss of $1,578,020,817 from all natural hazards for Utah (29 counties, 2026). An annualized expectation of future loss, not a record."
source = "FEMA National Risk Index"
sourceUrl = "https://hazards.fema.gov/nri/"
falsifier = "occurred=FALSE: a MODELED figure — an authority's computed quantity ESTIMATING an independent/latent value (an index or annualized expectation), REPRODUCIBLE from its disclosed inputs, NOT a record of an event. adjudged=TRUE because FEMA National Risk Index (an external authority) computes and publishes it. The grounding promises \"reproduce this from the inputs\" — so a categorical authority VERDICT that is NOT reproducible (a star rating, a risk class) is a 'determination', not 'modeled'. Superseded by the next release."

[[claims]]
id = "https://property-atlas.ryanjhunter.workers.dev/property/states/ut/nri-risk-score"
warrant = "MODELED"
name = "FEMA NRI composite risk SCORE for Utah is 36.1893/100 (dominant hazard: Landslide)"
text = "The FEMA National Risk Index composite risk score (0-100, county average; ~50 is the national midpoint, so above 50 is above the typical U.S. county) for Utah is 36.1893. A modeled composite index, not a recorded quantity."
source = "FEMA National Risk Index"
sourceUrl = "https://hazards.fema.gov/nri/"
falsifier = "occurred=FALSE: a MODELED figure — an authority's computed quantity ESTIMATING an independent/latent value (an index or annualized expectation), REPRODUCIBLE from its disclosed inputs, NOT a record of an event. adjudged=TRUE because FEMA National Risk Index (an external authority) computes and publishes it. The grounding promises \"reproduce this from the inputs\" — so a categorical authority VERDICT that is NOT reproducible (a star rating, a risk class) is a 'determination', not 'modeled'. Superseded by the next release."

[[claims]]
id = "https://property-atlas.ryanjhunter.workers.dev/property/states/ut/social-vulnerability"
warrant = "MODELED"
name = "FEMA NRI social vulnerability SCORE for Utah is 25.34/100 (a modeled index of who bears the risk)"
text = "The FEMA National Risk Index social vulnerability score (0–100, county average; built on the CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index) for Utah is 25.34. A modeled composite of the social conditions that worsen a community's hazard outcomes — not a record of harm, and not a judgment of any person."
source = "FEMA National Risk Index (CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index)"
sourceUrl = "https://hazards.fema.gov/nri/"
falsifier = "occurred=FALSE: a MODELED figure — an authority's computed quantity ESTIMATING an independent/latent value (an index or annualized expectation), REPRODUCIBLE from its disclosed inputs, NOT a record of an event. adjudged=TRUE because FEMA National Risk Index (CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index) (an external authority) computes and publishes it. The grounding promises \"reproduce this from the inputs\" — so a categorical authority VERDICT that is NOT reproducible (a star rating, a risk class) is a 'determination', not 'modeled'. Superseded by the next release."

[[claims]]
id = "https://property-atlas.ryanjhunter.workers.dev/property/states/ut/community-resilience"
warrant = "MODELED"
name = "FEMA NRI community resilience SCORE for Utah is 58.205/100 (a modeled index of the capacity to absorb and recover)"
text = "The FEMA National Risk Index community resilience score (0–100, county average; built on the HVRI Baseline Resilience Indicators for Communities) for Utah is 58.205. A modeled composite of a community's capacity to prepare for, absorb, and recover from hazards — not a measured outcome."
source = "FEMA National Risk Index (HVRI Baseline Resilience Indicators for Communities)"
sourceUrl = "https://hazards.fema.gov/nri/"
falsifier = "occurred=FALSE: a MODELED figure — an authority's computed quantity ESTIMATING an independent/latent value (an index or annualized expectation), REPRODUCIBLE from its disclosed inputs, NOT a record of an event. adjudged=TRUE because FEMA National Risk Index (HVRI Baseline Resilience Indicators for Communities) (an external authority) computes and publishes it. The grounding promises \"reproduce this from the inputs\" — so a categorical authority VERDICT that is NOT reproducible (a star rating, a risk class) is a 'determination', not 'modeled'. Superseded by the next release."

[[claims]]
id = "https://property-atlas.ryanjhunter.workers.dev/property/states/ut/noaa-recorded-totals"
warrant = "RECORDED"
name = "NOAA recorded 390 storm events in Utah in 2025: $37,413,000 property damage, 5 direct deaths"
text = "The NOAA Storm Events Database records 390 storm events that occurred in Utah in 2025, with $37,413,000 in reported property damage, 5 direct deaths, and 5 direct injuries, across 19 distinct peril types. These are RECORDED occurrences (occurred=true) — the historical event log, NOT the modeled FEMA risk score above. Damage figures are NOAA's reported estimates and can undercount."
source = "NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database"
sourceUrl = "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/stormevents/"
falsifier = "A RECORD of measured/reported events (occurred=true) from NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database; superseded when NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database publishes its next release."

[[claims]]
id = "https://property-atlas.ryanjhunter.workers.dev/property/states/ut/noaa-deadliest-peril"
warrant = "RECORDED"
name = "Avalanche was the most consequential recorded peril in Utah in 2025 (3 deaths, $10,000)"
text = "Of all peril types NOAA recorded in Utah in 2025, Avalanche caused the most direct deaths (3) across 5 events, with $10,000 in reported property damage. A recorded ranking within the actual event log (occurred=true), not a forecast of future perils."
source = "NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database"
sourceUrl = "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/stormevents/"
falsifier = "A RECORD of measured/reported events (occurred=true) from NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database; superseded when NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database publishes its next release."

[[claims]]
id = "https://property-atlas.ryanjhunter.workers.dev/property/states/ut/national-death-rank"
warrant = "DERIVED"
name = "Utah's 2025 storm deaths are 1.53 per million residents — 17th of 51 states population-normalized (raw count: 23rd of 51)"
text = "Normalized for population, Utah's 5 direct storm deaths in 2025 are 1.53 per million residents — the 17th-highest of 51 states, against a typical state's 0.91. The raw count ranks 23rd of 51, but per-capita de-confounds state size and is the truer cross-state comparison. In-house rankings over NOAA's recorded single-year counts (occurred=false as a ranking, adjudged=false); population is the Census resident total summed from counties."
source = "Property Atlas — population-normalized rank within the recorded single-year state death distribution"
sourceUrl = "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/stormevents/"
falsifier = "occurred=FALSE (a calculation, not an event) and adjudged=FALSE (a transparent in-house formula, not an authority's verdict — no external adjudicator). Reproduce it from its named inputs; falsified if the formula or inputs are wrong. Lower warrant than the adjudged figures above."

[[claims]]
id = "https://property-atlas.ryanjhunter.workers.dev/property/states/ut/two-lens-model-vs-record"
warrant = "INTERPRETATION"
name = "Model and record diverge in Utah: FEMA's dollar-weighted dominant hazard is Landslide; the 2025 deadliest force was Avalanche"
text = "FEMA's National Risk Index, weighting expected-loss DOLLARS, names Landslide Utah's dominant hazard. The 2025 NOAA record, weighting LIVES, shows Avalanche as the deadliest force. Both are correct for the question they answer — dollars and lives are different lenses on the same place. This is the atlas's reading (occurred=false, adjudged=false), not a claim that either authority is wrong."
source = "Property Atlas framing (over the FEMA model and the NOAA record above)"
sourceUrl = "https://property-atlas.ryanjhunter.workers.dev/"
falsifier = "occurred=FALSE (a framing, not an event) and adjudged=FALSE (the atlas's reading, not a FEMA or NOAA verdict). The FEMA dominant hazard (modeled) and the deadliest recorded peril (recorded) above are each grounded; this two-lens contrast is the interpretation that joins them."

[[claims]]
id = "https://property-atlas.ryanjhunter.workers.dev/property/states/ut/boundary"
warrant = "INTERPRETATION"
name = "What this risk profile is — and is NOT — for Utah (the epistemic boundary)"
text = "Every figure above is an official state-level figure from a named public authority (measured or rating, as labeled). They do NOT advise on a specific property's insurability, value, or whether to buy or insure it. For a property-level answer, use the FEMA Map Service Center and a licensed insurance producer."
source = "Property Atlas framing (over the FEMA/NOAA figures above)"
sourceUrl = "https://property-atlas.ryanjhunter.workers.dev/"
falsifier = "occurred=FALSE (a framing, not an event) and adjudged=FALSE (the atlas's boundary, not an authority's verdict) — the LOWEST-warrant claim here. The measured figures (NOAA storm loss) and the rating figures (FEMA expected loss, NRI score) above are each grounded; this is the only context note, and the four-status says so."

[[riskIndicators]]
indicator = "NRI composite risk score (0–100)"
value = 36.1893
warrant = "MODELED"
source = "FEMA NRI"

[[riskIndicators]]
indicator = "Dominant hazard"
value = "Landslide"
warrant = "MODELED"
source = "FEMA NRI"

[[riskIndicators]]
indicator = "Expected annual loss (USD/yr)"
value = 1578020817
warrant = "MODELED"
source = "FEMA NRI"

[[riskIndicators]]
indicator = "Counties in aggregate"
value = 29
warrant = "—"
source = "FEMA NRI"

[[riskIndicators]]
indicator = "Social vulnerability (0–100)"
value = 25.34
warrant = "MODELED"
source = "FEMA NRI · CDC/ATSDR SVI"

[[riskIndicators]]
indicator = "Community resilience (0–100)"
value = 58.205
warrant = "MODELED"
source = "FEMA NRI · HVRI BRIC"

[[riskIndicators]]
indicator = "Storm property damage (USD)"
value = 37413000
warrant = "RECORDED"
source = "NOAA Storm Events"

[[riskIndicators]]
indicator = "Storm events recorded"
value = 390
warrant = "RECORDED"
source = "NOAA Storm Events"

[[riskIndicators]]
indicator = "Storm direct deaths"
value = 5
warrant = "RECORDED"
source = "NOAA Storm Events"

[[riskIndicators]]
indicator = "Mitigation dollars obligated (USD)"
value = 186262201
warrant = "RECORDED"
source = "FEMA BRIC/HMGP"

[[riskIndicators]]
indicator = "Mitigation sub-applications"
value = 131
warrant = "RECORDED"
source = "FEMA BRIC/HMGP"

[[recordedPerils]]
peril = "Avalanche"
events = 5
deaths = 3
injuries = 2
property_damage_usd = 10000

[[recordedPerils]]
peril = "Strong Wind"
events = 7
deaths = 2
injuries = 1
property_damage_usd = 57500

[[recordedPerils]]
peril = "Wildfire"
events = 4
deaths = 0
injuries = 0
property_damage_usd = 35000000

[[recordedPerils]]
peril = "Flood"
events = 6
deaths = 0
injuries = 0
property_damage_usd = 1055000

[[recordedPerils]]
peril = "Flash Flood"
events = 48
deaths = 0
injuries = 2
property_damage_usd = 750000

[[recordedPerils]]
peril = "Winter Weather"
events = 18
deaths = 0
injuries = 0
property_damage_usd = 425000

[[recordedPerils]]
peril = "Thunderstorm Wind"
events = 163
deaths = 0
injuries = 0
property_damage_usd = 44500

[[recordedPerils]]
peril = "High Wind"
events = 26
deaths = 0
injuries = 0
property_damage_usd = 25000

[[recordedPerils]]
peril = "Winter Storm"
events = 8
deaths = 0
injuries = 0
property_damage_usd = 25000

[[recordedPerils]]
peril = "Hail"
events = 6
deaths = 0
injuries = 0
property_damage_usd = 20000

[[recordedPerils]]
peril = "Debris Flow"
events = 1
deaths = 0
injuries = 0
property_damage_usd = 1000

[[recordedPerils]]
peril = "Extreme Cold/Wind Chill"
events = 29
deaths = 0
injuries = 0
property_damage_usd = 0

[[recordedPerils]]
peril = "Drought"
events = 29
deaths = 0
injuries = 0
property_damage_usd = 0

[[recordedPerils]]
peril = "Heavy Snow"
events = 21
deaths = 0
injuries = 0
property_damage_usd = 0

[[recordedPerils]]
peril = "Dense Fog"
events = 6
deaths = 0
injuries = 0
property_damage_usd = 0

[[recordedPerils]]
peril = "Frost/Freeze"
events = 5
deaths = 0
injuries = 0
property_damage_usd = 0

[[recordedPerils]]
peril = "Tornado"
events = 5
deaths = 0
injuries = 0
property_damage_usd = 0

[[recordedPerils]]
peril = "Heavy Rain"
events = 2
deaths = 0
injuries = 0
property_damage_usd = 0

[[recordedPerils]]
peril = "Dust Storm"
events = 1
deaths = 0
injuries = 0
property_damage_usd = 0
