---
title: Atlas Commons research objects — natural-hazard risk profile for Texas
license: CC0-1.0
source: FEMA National Risk Index
---

# Atlas Commons research objects — natural-hazard risk profile for Texas

Texas's natural-hazard risk from public federal sources, with each figure's epistemic status labeled: recorded facts (NOAA storm events, property damage, and deaths for the 2025 storm year) are observations of what occurred; the cross-state rank is derived (an in-house ranking over the recorded single-year totals); rating figures (FEMA expected annual loss, FEMA NRI composite score, social vulnerability and community resilience indices) are models that authorities compute — not direct measurements; the two-lens and boundary notes are interpretation — state-level aggregates, not a verdict on any specific property. Sources: FEMA National Risk Index, NOAA Storm Events Database. CC0.

## Claims

### FEMA EXPECTED annual loss from natural hazards in Texas is $12,347,225,872 (a modeled expectation)

**MODELED.** The FEMA National Risk Index models an EXPECTED annual loss of $12,347,225,872 from all natural hazards for Texas (254 counties, 2026). An annualized expectation of future loss, not a record.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index — https://hazards.fema.gov/nri/
Falsifier: occurred=FALSE: a MODELED figure — an authority's computed quantity ESTIMATING an independent/latent value (an index or annualized expectation), REPRODUCIBLE from its disclosed inputs, NOT a record of an event. adjudged=TRUE because FEMA National Risk Index (an external authority) computes and publishes it. The grounding promises "reproduce this from the inputs" — so a categorical authority VERDICT that is NOT reproducible (a star rating, a risk class) is a 'determination', not 'modeled'. Superseded by the next release.

### FEMA NRI composite risk SCORE for Texas is 49.0012/100 (dominant hazard: Drought)

**MODELED.** The FEMA National Risk Index composite risk score (0-100, county average; ~50 is the national midpoint, so above 50 is above the typical U.S. county) for Texas is 49.0012. A modeled composite index, not a recorded quantity.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index — https://hazards.fema.gov/nri/
Falsifier: occurred=FALSE: a MODELED figure — an authority's computed quantity ESTIMATING an independent/latent value (an index or annualized expectation), REPRODUCIBLE from its disclosed inputs, NOT a record of an event. adjudged=TRUE because FEMA National Risk Index (an external authority) computes and publishes it. The grounding promises "reproduce this from the inputs" — so a categorical authority VERDICT that is NOT reproducible (a star rating, a risk class) is a 'determination', not 'modeled'. Superseded by the next release.

### FEMA NRI social vulnerability SCORE for Texas is 64.7779/100 (a modeled index of who bears the risk)

**MODELED.** The FEMA National Risk Index social vulnerability score (0–100, county average; built on the CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index) for Texas is 64.7779. A modeled composite of the social conditions that worsen a community's hazard outcomes — not a record of harm, and not a judgment of any person.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index (CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index) — https://hazards.fema.gov/nri/
Falsifier: occurred=FALSE: a MODELED figure — an authority's computed quantity ESTIMATING an independent/latent value (an index or annualized expectation), REPRODUCIBLE from its disclosed inputs, NOT a record of an event. adjudged=TRUE because FEMA National Risk Index (CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index) (an external authority) computes and publishes it. The grounding promises "reproduce this from the inputs" — so a categorical authority VERDICT that is NOT reproducible (a star rating, a risk class) is a 'determination', not 'modeled'. Superseded by the next release.

### FEMA NRI community resilience SCORE for Texas is 30.5521/100 (a modeled index of the capacity to absorb and recover)

**MODELED.** The FEMA National Risk Index community resilience score (0–100, county average; built on the HVRI Baseline Resilience Indicators for Communities) for Texas is 30.5521. A modeled composite of a community's capacity to prepare for, absorb, and recover from hazards — not a measured outcome.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index (HVRI Baseline Resilience Indicators for Communities) — https://hazards.fema.gov/nri/
Falsifier: occurred=FALSE: a MODELED figure — an authority's computed quantity ESTIMATING an independent/latent value (an index or annualized expectation), REPRODUCIBLE from its disclosed inputs, NOT a record of an event. adjudged=TRUE because FEMA National Risk Index (HVRI Baseline Resilience Indicators for Communities) (an external authority) computes and publishes it. The grounding promises "reproduce this from the inputs" — so a categorical authority VERDICT that is NOT reproducible (a star rating, a risk class) is a 'determination', not 'modeled'. Superseded by the next release.

### NOAA recorded 4,755 storm events in Texas in 2025: $488,482,150 property damage, 153 direct deaths

**RECORDED.** The NOAA Storm Events Database records 4,755 storm events that occurred in Texas in 2025, with $488,482,150 in reported property damage, 153 direct deaths, and 70 direct injuries, across 28 distinct peril types. These are RECORDED occurrences (occurred=true) — the historical event log, NOT the modeled FEMA risk score above. Damage figures are NOAA's reported estimates and can undercount.

Source: NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database — https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/stormevents/
Falsifier: A RECORD of measured/reported events (occurred=true) from NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database; superseded when NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database publishes its next release.

### Flash Flood was the most consequential recorded peril in Texas in 2025 (144 deaths, $427,962,000)

**RECORDED.** Of all peril types NOAA recorded in Texas in 2025, Flash Flood caused the most direct deaths (144) across 624 events, with $427,962,000 in reported property damage. A recorded ranking within the actual event log (occurred=true), not a forecast of future perils.

Source: NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database — https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/stormevents/
Falsifier: A RECORD of measured/reported events (occurred=true) from NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database; superseded when NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database publishes its next release.

### Texas's 2025 storm deaths are 5.26 per million residents — 5th of 51 states population-normalized (raw count: 1st of 51)

**DERIVED.** Normalized for population, Texas's 153 direct storm deaths in 2025 are 5.26 per million residents — the 5th-highest of 51 states, against a typical state's 0.91. The raw count ranks 1st of 51, but per-capita de-confounds state size and is the truer cross-state comparison. In-house rankings over NOAA's recorded single-year counts (occurred=false as a ranking, adjudged=false); population is the Census resident total summed from counties.

Source: Property Atlas — population-normalized rank within the recorded single-year state death distribution — https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/stormevents/
Falsifier: occurred=FALSE (a calculation, not an event) and adjudged=FALSE (a transparent in-house formula, not an authority's verdict — no external adjudicator). Reproduce it from its named inputs; falsified if the formula or inputs are wrong. Lower warrant than the adjudged figures above.

### Model and record diverge in Texas: FEMA's dollar-weighted dominant hazard is Drought; the 2025 deadliest force was Flash Flood

**INTERPRETATION.** FEMA's National Risk Index, weighting expected-loss DOLLARS, names Drought Texas's dominant hazard. The 2025 NOAA record, weighting LIVES, shows Flash Flood as the deadliest force. Both are correct for the question they answer — dollars and lives are different lenses on the same place. This is the atlas's reading (occurred=false, adjudged=false), not a claim that either authority is wrong.

Source: Property Atlas framing (over the FEMA model and the NOAA record above) — https://property-atlas.ryanjhunter.workers.dev/
Falsifier: occurred=FALSE (a framing, not an event) and adjudged=FALSE (the atlas's reading, not a FEMA or NOAA verdict). The FEMA dominant hazard (modeled) and the deadliest recorded peril (recorded) above are each grounded; this two-lens contrast is the interpretation that joins them.

### What this risk profile is — and is NOT — for Texas (the epistemic boundary)

**INTERPRETATION.** Every figure above is an official state-level figure from a named public authority (measured or rating, as labeled). They do NOT advise on a specific property's insurability, value, or whether to buy or insure it. For a property-level answer, use the FEMA Map Service Center and a licensed insurance producer.

Source: Property Atlas framing (over the FEMA/NOAA figures above) — https://property-atlas.ryanjhunter.workers.dev/
Falsifier: occurred=FALSE (a framing, not an event) and adjudged=FALSE (the atlas's boundary, not an authority's verdict) — the LOWEST-warrant claim here. The measured figures (NOAA storm loss) and the rating figures (FEMA expected loss, NRI score) above are each grounded; this is the only context note, and the four-status says so.

---

Every claim above carries a four-status warrant (RECORDED / MODELED / DERIVED / INTERPRETATION) and a named source you can re-fetch — this is a research object, not a flat fact. Structured: `https://property-atlas.ryanjhunter.workers.dev/property/states/tx.jsonld`

## Data

### Texas — every risk indicator (typed)

Each official figure for this state with its four-status warrant and named source. MODELED = an authority's computed index or expectation; RECORDED = an observed total.

| indicator | value | warrant | source |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| NRI composite risk score (0–100) | 49.0012 | MODELED | FEMA NRI |
| Dominant hazard | Drought | MODELED | FEMA NRI |
| Expected annual loss (USD/yr) | 12347225872 | MODELED | FEMA NRI |
| Counties in aggregate | 254 | — | FEMA NRI |
| Social vulnerability (0–100) | 64.7779 | MODELED | FEMA NRI · CDC/ATSDR SVI |
| Community resilience (0–100) | 30.5521 | MODELED | FEMA NRI · HVRI BRIC |
| Storm property damage (USD) | 488482150 | RECORDED | NOAA Storm Events |
| Storm events recorded | 4755 | RECORDED | NOAA Storm Events |
| Storm direct deaths | 153 | RECORDED | NOAA Storm Events |
| Mitigation dollars obligated (USD) | 212313152 | RECORDED | FEMA BRIC/HMGP |
| Mitigation sub-applications | 294 | RECORDED | FEMA BRIC/HMGP |

### Texas — recorded storm perils (NOAA, 2025)

RECORDED occurrences from the NOAA Storm Events log — direct deaths only; damage is NOAA's reported estimate; a bounded single-period record, not a forecast.

| peril | events | deaths | injuries | property_damage_usd |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Flash Flood | 624 | 144 | 0 | 427962000 |
| Lightning | 41 | 3 | 20 | 6540000 |
| Rip Current | 11 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Thunderstorm Wind | 1026 | 2 | 15 | 30255700 |
| Winter Storm | 76 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tornado | 117 | 0 | 12 | 16062500 |
| Hail | 1197 | 0 | 5 | 5457750 |
| Wildfire | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1520000 |
| Dust Storm | 50 | 0 | 0 | 375000 |
| Flood | 50 | 0 | 0 | 172200 |
| High Wind | 186 | 0 | 0 | 80000 |
| Strong Wind | 5 | 0 | 0 | 47000 |
| Winter Weather | 110 | 0 | 0 | 10000 |
| Drought | 605 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Heat | 266 | 0 | 18 | 0 |
| Cold/Wind Chill | 180 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Frost/Freeze | 54 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Heavy Rain | 50 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Extreme Cold/Wind Chill | 46 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Heavy Snow | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Astronomical Low Tide | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Excessive Heat | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Funnel Cloud | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sleet | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dense Fog | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Coastal Flood | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Blizzard | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ice Storm | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |