---
title: Atlas Commons research objects — natural-hazard risk profile for Mississippi
license: CC0-1.0
source: FEMA National Risk Index
---

# Atlas Commons research objects — natural-hazard risk profile for Mississippi

Mississippi's natural-hazard risk from public federal sources, with each figure's epistemic status labeled: recorded facts (NOAA storm events, property damage, and deaths for the 2025 storm year) are observations of what occurred; the cross-state rank is derived (an in-house ranking over the recorded single-year totals); rating figures (FEMA expected annual loss, FEMA NRI composite score, social vulnerability and community resilience indices) are models that authorities compute — not direct measurements; the two-lens and boundary notes are interpretation — state-level aggregates, not a verdict on any specific property. Sources: FEMA National Risk Index, NOAA Storm Events Database. CC0.

## Claims

### FEMA EXPECTED annual loss from natural hazards in Mississippi is $1,637,868,987 (a modeled expectation)

**MODELED.** The FEMA National Risk Index models an EXPECTED annual loss of $1,637,868,987 from all natural hazards for Mississippi (82 counties, 2026). An annualized expectation of future loss, not a record.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index — https://hazards.fema.gov/nri/
Falsifier: occurred=FALSE: a MODELED figure — an authority's computed quantity ESTIMATING an independent/latent value (an index or annualized expectation), REPRODUCIBLE from its disclosed inputs, NOT a record of an event. adjudged=TRUE because FEMA National Risk Index (an external authority) computes and publishes it. The grounding promises "reproduce this from the inputs" — so a categorical authority VERDICT that is NOT reproducible (a star rating, a risk class) is a 'determination', not 'modeled'. Superseded by the next release.

### FEMA NRI composite risk SCORE for Mississippi is 50.9383/100 (dominant hazard: Earthquake)

**MODELED.** The FEMA National Risk Index composite risk score (0-100, county average; ~50 is the national midpoint, so above 50 is above the typical U.S. county) for Mississippi is 50.9383. A modeled composite index, not a recorded quantity.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index — https://hazards.fema.gov/nri/
Falsifier: occurred=FALSE: a MODELED figure — an authority's computed quantity ESTIMATING an independent/latent value (an index or annualized expectation), REPRODUCIBLE from its disclosed inputs, NOT a record of an event. adjudged=TRUE because FEMA National Risk Index (an external authority) computes and publishes it. The grounding promises "reproduce this from the inputs" — so a categorical authority VERDICT that is NOT reproducible (a star rating, a risk class) is a 'determination', not 'modeled'. Superseded by the next release.

### FEMA NRI social vulnerability SCORE for Mississippi is 79.9925/100 (a modeled index of who bears the risk)

**MODELED.** The FEMA National Risk Index social vulnerability score (0–100, county average; built on the CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index) for Mississippi is 79.9925. A modeled composite of the social conditions that worsen a community's hazard outcomes — not a record of harm, and not a judgment of any person.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index (CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index) — https://hazards.fema.gov/nri/
Falsifier: occurred=FALSE: a MODELED figure — an authority's computed quantity ESTIMATING an independent/latent value (an index or annualized expectation), REPRODUCIBLE from its disclosed inputs, NOT a record of an event. adjudged=TRUE because FEMA National Risk Index (CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index) (an external authority) computes and publishes it. The grounding promises "reproduce this from the inputs" — so a categorical authority VERDICT that is NOT reproducible (a star rating, a risk class) is a 'determination', not 'modeled'. Superseded by the next release.

### FEMA NRI community resilience SCORE for Mississippi is 38.8297/100 (a modeled index of the capacity to absorb and recover)

**MODELED.** The FEMA National Risk Index community resilience score (0–100, county average; built on the HVRI Baseline Resilience Indicators for Communities) for Mississippi is 38.8297. A modeled composite of a community's capacity to prepare for, absorb, and recover from hazards — not a measured outcome.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index (HVRI Baseline Resilience Indicators for Communities) — https://hazards.fema.gov/nri/
Falsifier: occurred=FALSE: a MODELED figure — an authority's computed quantity ESTIMATING an independent/latent value (an index or annualized expectation), REPRODUCIBLE from its disclosed inputs, NOT a record of an event. adjudged=TRUE because FEMA National Risk Index (HVRI Baseline Resilience Indicators for Communities) (an external authority) computes and publishes it. The grounding promises "reproduce this from the inputs" — so a categorical authority VERDICT that is NOT reproducible (a star rating, a risk class) is a 'determination', not 'modeled'. Superseded by the next release.

### NOAA recorded 1,665 storm events in Mississippi in 2025: $42,281,300 property damage, 13 direct deaths

**RECORDED.** The NOAA Storm Events Database records 1,665 storm events that occurred in Mississippi in 2025, with $42,281,300 in reported property damage, 13 direct deaths, and 37 direct injuries, across 18 distinct peril types. These are RECORDED occurrences (occurred=true) — the historical event log, NOT the modeled FEMA risk score above. Damage figures are NOAA's reported estimates and can undercount.

Source: NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database — https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/stormevents/
Falsifier: A RECORD of measured/reported events (occurred=true) from NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database; superseded when NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database publishes its next release.

### Tornado was the most consequential recorded peril in Mississippi in 2025 (9 deaths, $30,106,000)

**RECORDED.** Of all peril types NOAA recorded in Mississippi in 2025, Tornado caused the most direct deaths (9) across 113 events, with $30,106,000 in reported property damage. A recorded ranking within the actual event log (occurred=true), not a forecast of future perils.

Source: NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database — https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/stormevents/
Falsifier: A RECORD of measured/reported events (occurred=true) from NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database; superseded when NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database publishes its next release.

### Mississippi's 2025 storm deaths are 4.4 per million residents — 6th of 51 states population-normalized (raw count: 9th of 51)

**DERIVED.** Normalized for population, Mississippi's 13 direct storm deaths in 2025 are 4.4 per million residents — the 6th-highest of 51 states, against a typical state's 0.91. The raw count ranks 9th of 51, but per-capita de-confounds state size and is the truer cross-state comparison. In-house rankings over NOAA's recorded single-year counts (occurred=false as a ranking, adjudged=false); population is the Census resident total summed from counties.

Source: Property Atlas — population-normalized rank within the recorded single-year state death distribution — https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/stormevents/
Falsifier: occurred=FALSE (a calculation, not an event) and adjudged=FALSE (a transparent in-house formula, not an authority's verdict — no external adjudicator). Reproduce it from its named inputs; falsified if the formula or inputs are wrong. Lower warrant than the adjudged figures above.

### Model and record diverge in Mississippi: FEMA's dollar-weighted dominant hazard is Earthquake; the 2025 deadliest force was Tornado

**INTERPRETATION.** FEMA's National Risk Index, weighting expected-loss DOLLARS, names Earthquake Mississippi's dominant hazard. The 2025 NOAA record, weighting LIVES, shows Tornado as the deadliest force. Both are correct for the question they answer — dollars and lives are different lenses on the same place. This is the atlas's reading (occurred=false, adjudged=false), not a claim that either authority is wrong.

Source: Property Atlas framing (over the FEMA model and the NOAA record above) — https://property-atlas.ryanjhunter.workers.dev/
Falsifier: occurred=FALSE (a framing, not an event) and adjudged=FALSE (the atlas's reading, not a FEMA or NOAA verdict). The FEMA dominant hazard (modeled) and the deadliest recorded peril (recorded) above are each grounded; this two-lens contrast is the interpretation that joins them.

### What this risk profile is — and is NOT — for Mississippi (the epistemic boundary)

**INTERPRETATION.** Every figure above is an official state-level figure from a named public authority (measured or rating, as labeled). They do NOT advise on a specific property's insurability, value, or whether to buy or insure it. For a property-level answer, use the FEMA Map Service Center and a licensed insurance producer.

Source: Property Atlas framing (over the FEMA/NOAA figures above) — https://property-atlas.ryanjhunter.workers.dev/
Falsifier: occurred=FALSE (a framing, not an event) and adjudged=FALSE (the atlas's boundary, not an authority's verdict) — the LOWEST-warrant claim here. The measured figures (NOAA storm loss) and the rating figures (FEMA expected loss, NRI score) above are each grounded; this is the only context note, and the four-status says so.

---

Every claim above carries a four-status warrant (RECORDED / MODELED / DERIVED / INTERPRETATION) and a named source you can re-fetch — this is a research object, not a flat fact. Structured: `https://property-atlas.ryanjhunter.workers.dev/property/states/ms.jsonld`

## Data

### Mississippi — every risk indicator (typed)

Each official figure for this state with its four-status warrant and named source. MODELED = an authority's computed index or expectation; RECORDED = an observed total.

| indicator | value | warrant | source |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| NRI composite risk score (0–100) | 50.9383 | MODELED | FEMA NRI |
| Dominant hazard | Earthquake | MODELED | FEMA NRI |
| Expected annual loss (USD/yr) | 1637868987 | MODELED | FEMA NRI |
| Counties in aggregate | 82 | — | FEMA NRI |
| Social vulnerability (0–100) | 79.9925 | MODELED | FEMA NRI · CDC/ATSDR SVI |
| Community resilience (0–100) | 38.8297 | MODELED | FEMA NRI · HVRI BRIC |
| Storm property damage (USD) | 42281300 | RECORDED | NOAA Storm Events |
| Storm events recorded | 1665 | RECORDED | NOAA Storm Events |
| Storm direct deaths | 13 | RECORDED | NOAA Storm Events |
| Mitigation dollars obligated (USD) | 3555875 | RECORDED | FEMA BRIC/HMGP |
| Mitigation sub-applications | 29 | RECORDED | FEMA BRIC/HMGP |

### Mississippi — recorded storm perils (NOAA, 2025)

RECORDED occurrences from the NOAA Storm Events log — direct deaths only; damage is NOAA's reported estimate; a bounded single-period record, not a forecast.

| peril | events | deaths | injuries | property_damage_usd |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Tornado | 113 | 9 | 35 | 30106000 |
| Strong Wind | 35 | 2 | 0 | 426000 |
| Flash Flood | 86 | 1 | 1 | 2020000 |
| Lightning | 11 | 1 | 0 | 465000 |
| Thunderstorm Wind | 697 | 0 | 1 | 7166300 |
| Hail | 129 | 0 | 0 | 2078000 |
| Wildfire | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10000 |
| Flood | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9000 |
| High Wind | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1000 |
| Heat | 396 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Excessive Heat | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Drought | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Heavy Snow | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Winter Storm | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Winter Weather | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Extreme Cold/Wind Chill | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sleet | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Funnel Cloud | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |