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  "name": "Atlas Commons research objects — natural-hazard risk profile for Illinois",
  "description": "Illinois's natural-hazard risk from public federal sources, with each figure's epistemic status labeled: recorded facts (NOAA storm events, property damage, and deaths for the 2025 storm year) are observations of what occurred; the cross-state rank is derived (an in-house ranking over the recorded single-year totals); rating figures (FEMA expected annual loss, FEMA NRI composite score, social vulnerability and community resilience indices) are models that authorities compute — not direct measurements; the two-lens and boundary notes are interpretation — state-level aggregates, not a verdict on any specific property. Sources: FEMA National Risk Index, NOAA Storm Events Database. CC0.",
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    "name": "Illinois",
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  "claims": [
    {
      "@id": "https://property-atlas.ryanjhunter.workers.dev/property/states/il/expected-annual-loss",
      "@type": "schema:Claim",
      "name": "FEMA EXPECTED annual loss from natural hazards in Illinois is $6,410,338,001 (a modeled expectation)",
      "text": "The FEMA National Risk Index models an EXPECTED annual loss of $6,410,338,001 from all natural hazards for Illinois (102 counties, 2026). An annualized expectation of future loss, not a record.",
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        "adjudicator": {
          "name": "FEMA National Risk Index",
          "url": "https://hazards.fema.gov/nri/"
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      "falsifier": "occurred=FALSE: a MODELED figure — an authority's computed quantity ESTIMATING an independent/latent value (an index or annualized expectation), REPRODUCIBLE from its disclosed inputs, NOT a record of an event. adjudged=TRUE because FEMA National Risk Index (an external authority) computes and publishes it. The grounding promises \"reproduce this from the inputs\" — so a categorical authority VERDICT that is NOT reproducible (a star rating, a risk class) is a 'determination', not 'modeled'. Superseded by the next release."
    },
    {
      "@id": "https://property-atlas.ryanjhunter.workers.dev/property/states/il/nri-risk-score",
      "@type": "schema:Claim",
      "name": "FEMA NRI composite risk SCORE for Illinois is 54.461/100 (dominant hazard: Earthquake)",
      "text": "The FEMA National Risk Index composite risk score (0-100, county average; ~50 is the national midpoint, so above 50 is above the typical U.S. county) for Illinois is 54.461. A modeled composite index, not a recorded quantity.",
      "claimType": "derived_measure",
      "reviewStatus": "current",
      "commercialInfluence": false,
      "epistemicStatus": {
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        "adjudged": true,
        "operative": true
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      "grounding": {
        "groundingType": "DerivedMeasure",
        "source": "FEMA National Risk Index",
        "sourceUrl": "https://hazards.fema.gov/nri/",
        "value": "54.461/100",
        "adjudicator": {
          "name": "FEMA National Risk Index",
          "url": "https://hazards.fema.gov/nri/"
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      },
      "falsifier": "occurred=FALSE: a MODELED figure — an authority's computed quantity ESTIMATING an independent/latent value (an index or annualized expectation), REPRODUCIBLE from its disclosed inputs, NOT a record of an event. adjudged=TRUE because FEMA National Risk Index (an external authority) computes and publishes it. The grounding promises \"reproduce this from the inputs\" — so a categorical authority VERDICT that is NOT reproducible (a star rating, a risk class) is a 'determination', not 'modeled'. Superseded by the next release."
    },
    {
      "@id": "https://property-atlas.ryanjhunter.workers.dev/property/states/il/social-vulnerability",
      "@type": "schema:Claim",
      "name": "FEMA NRI social vulnerability SCORE for Illinois is 42.5744/100 (a modeled index of who bears the risk)",
      "text": "The FEMA National Risk Index social vulnerability score (0–100, county average; built on the CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index) for Illinois is 42.5744. A modeled composite of the social conditions that worsen a community's hazard outcomes — not a record of harm, and not a judgment of any person.",
      "claimType": "derived_measure",
      "reviewStatus": "current",
      "commercialInfluence": false,
      "epistemicStatus": {
        "occurred": false,
        "supported": true,
        "adjudged": true,
        "operative": true
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      "grounding": {
        "groundingType": "DerivedMeasure",
        "source": "FEMA National Risk Index (CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index)",
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        "value": "42.5744/100",
        "adjudicator": {
          "name": "FEMA National Risk Index (CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index)",
          "url": "https://hazards.fema.gov/nri/"
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      "falsifier": "occurred=FALSE: a MODELED figure — an authority's computed quantity ESTIMATING an independent/latent value (an index or annualized expectation), REPRODUCIBLE from its disclosed inputs, NOT a record of an event. adjudged=TRUE because FEMA National Risk Index (CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index) (an external authority) computes and publishes it. The grounding promises \"reproduce this from the inputs\" — so a categorical authority VERDICT that is NOT reproducible (a star rating, a risk class) is a 'determination', not 'modeled'. Superseded by the next release."
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    {
      "@id": "https://property-atlas.ryanjhunter.workers.dev/property/states/il/community-resilience",
      "@type": "schema:Claim",
      "name": "FEMA NRI community resilience SCORE for Illinois is 74.922/100 (a modeled index of the capacity to absorb and recover)",
      "text": "The FEMA National Risk Index community resilience score (0–100, county average; built on the HVRI Baseline Resilience Indicators for Communities) for Illinois is 74.922. A modeled composite of a community's capacity to prepare for, absorb, and recover from hazards — not a measured outcome.",
      "claimType": "derived_measure",
      "reviewStatus": "current",
      "commercialInfluence": false,
      "epistemicStatus": {
        "occurred": false,
        "supported": true,
        "adjudged": true,
        "operative": true
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      "grounding": {
        "groundingType": "DerivedMeasure",
        "source": "FEMA National Risk Index (HVRI Baseline Resilience Indicators for Communities)",
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        "value": "74.922/100",
        "adjudicator": {
          "name": "FEMA National Risk Index (HVRI Baseline Resilience Indicators for Communities)",
          "url": "https://hazards.fema.gov/nri/"
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      },
      "falsifier": "occurred=FALSE: a MODELED figure — an authority's computed quantity ESTIMATING an independent/latent value (an index or annualized expectation), REPRODUCIBLE from its disclosed inputs, NOT a record of an event. adjudged=TRUE because FEMA National Risk Index (HVRI Baseline Resilience Indicators for Communities) (an external authority) computes and publishes it. The grounding promises \"reproduce this from the inputs\" — so a categorical authority VERDICT that is NOT reproducible (a star rating, a risk class) is a 'determination', not 'modeled'. Superseded by the next release."
    },
    {
      "@id": "https://property-atlas.ryanjhunter.workers.dev/property/states/il/noaa-recorded-totals",
      "@type": "schema:Claim",
      "name": "NOAA recorded 2,662 storm events in Illinois in 2025: $532,472,600 property damage, 9 direct deaths",
      "text": "The NOAA Storm Events Database records 2,662 storm events that occurred in Illinois in 2025, with $532,472,600 in reported property damage, 9 direct deaths, and 25 direct injuries, across 25 distinct peril types. These are RECORDED occurrences (occurred=true) — the historical event log, NOT the modeled FEMA risk score above. Damage figures are NOAA's reported estimates and can undercount.",
      "claimType": "official_fact",
      "reviewStatus": "current",
      "commercialInfluence": false,
      "epistemicStatus": {
        "occurred": true,
        "supported": true,
        "adjudged": true,
        "operative": true
      },
      "grounding": {
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        "source": "NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database",
        "sourceUrl": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/stormevents/",
        "value": "2662 events / $532,472,600 / 9 deaths (2025)",
        "adjudicator": {
          "name": "NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database",
          "url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/stormevents/"
        }
      },
      "falsifier": "A RECORD of measured/reported events (occurred=true) from NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database; superseded when NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database publishes its next release."
    },
    {
      "@id": "https://property-atlas.ryanjhunter.workers.dev/property/states/il/noaa-deadliest-peril",
      "@type": "schema:Claim",
      "name": "High Surf was the most consequential recorded peril in Illinois in 2025 (3 deaths, $0)",
      "text": "Of all peril types NOAA recorded in Illinois in 2025, High Surf caused the most direct deaths (3) across 3 events, with $0 in reported property damage. A recorded ranking within the actual event log (occurred=true), not a forecast of future perils.",
      "claimType": "official_fact",
      "reviewStatus": "current",
      "commercialInfluence": false,
      "epistemicStatus": {
        "occurred": true,
        "supported": true,
        "adjudged": true,
        "operative": true
      },
      "grounding": {
        "groundingType": "SourceCitation",
        "source": "NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database",
        "sourceUrl": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/stormevents/",
        "value": "High Surf: 3 deaths / $0",
        "adjudicator": {
          "name": "NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database",
          "url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/stormevents/"
        }
      },
      "falsifier": "A RECORD of measured/reported events (occurred=true) from NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database; superseded when NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database publishes its next release."
    },
    {
      "@id": "https://property-atlas.ryanjhunter.workers.dev/property/states/il/national-death-rank",
      "@type": "schema:Claim",
      "name": "Illinois's 2025 storm deaths are 0.7 per million residents — 32nd of 51 states population-normalized (raw count: 14th of 51)",
      "text": "Normalized for population, Illinois's 9 direct storm deaths in 2025 are 0.7 per million residents — the 32nd-highest of 51 states, against a typical state's 0.91. The raw count ranks 14th of 51, but per-capita de-confounds state size and is the truer cross-state comparison. In-house rankings over NOAA's recorded single-year counts (occurred=false as a ranking, adjudged=false); population is the Census resident total summed from counties.",
      "claimType": "derived_measure",
      "reviewStatus": "current",
      "commercialInfluence": false,
      "epistemicStatus": {
        "occurred": false,
        "supported": true,
        "adjudged": false,
        "operative": true
      },
      "grounding": {
        "groundingType": "DerivedMeasure",
        "source": "Property Atlas — population-normalized rank within the recorded single-year state death distribution",
        "sourceUrl": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/stormevents/",
        "value": "0.7/million, 32nd of 51 (raw 14th of 51)",
        "adjudicator": null
      },
      "falsifier": "occurred=FALSE (a calculation, not an event) and adjudged=FALSE (a transparent in-house formula, not an authority's verdict — no external adjudicator). Reproduce it from its named inputs; falsified if the formula or inputs are wrong. Lower warrant than the adjudged figures above."
    },
    {
      "@id": "https://property-atlas.ryanjhunter.workers.dev/property/states/il/two-lens-model-vs-record",
      "@type": "schema:Claim",
      "name": "Model and record diverge in Illinois: FEMA's dollar-weighted dominant hazard is Earthquake; the 2025 deadliest force was High Surf",
      "text": "FEMA's National Risk Index, weighting expected-loss DOLLARS, names Earthquake Illinois's dominant hazard. The 2025 NOAA record, weighting LIVES, shows High Surf as the deadliest force. Both are correct for the question they answer — dollars and lives are different lenses on the same place. This is the atlas's reading (occurred=false, adjudged=false), not a claim that either authority is wrong.",
      "claimType": "interpretation",
      "reviewStatus": "current",
      "commercialInfluence": false,
      "epistemicStatus": {
        "occurred": false,
        "supported": true,
        "adjudged": false,
        "operative": true
      },
      "grounding": {
        "groundingType": "Interpretation",
        "source": "Property Atlas framing (over the FEMA model and the NOAA record above)",
        "sourceUrl": "https://property-atlas.ryanjhunter.workers.dev/",
        "value": "dollars → Earthquake; lives → High Surf",
        "adjudicator": null
      },
      "falsifier": "occurred=FALSE (a framing, not an event) and adjudged=FALSE (the atlas's reading, not a FEMA or NOAA verdict). The FEMA dominant hazard (modeled) and the deadliest recorded peril (recorded) above are each grounded; this two-lens contrast is the interpretation that joins them."
    },
    {
      "@id": "https://property-atlas.ryanjhunter.workers.dev/property/states/il/boundary",
      "@type": "schema:Claim",
      "name": "What this risk profile is — and is NOT — for Illinois (the epistemic boundary)",
      "text": "Every figure above is an official state-level figure from a named public authority (measured or rating, as labeled). They do NOT advise on a specific property's insurability, value, or whether to buy or insure it. For a property-level answer, use the FEMA Map Service Center and a licensed insurance producer.",
      "claimType": "interpretation",
      "reviewStatus": "current",
      "commercialInfluence": false,
      "epistemicStatus": {
        "occurred": false,
        "supported": true,
        "adjudged": false,
        "operative": true
      },
      "grounding": {
        "groundingType": "Interpretation",
        "source": "Property Atlas framing (over the FEMA/NOAA figures above)",
        "sourceUrl": "https://property-atlas.ryanjhunter.workers.dev/",
        "value": "state-level figures; route to FEMA MSC + a licensed producer for property-level decisions",
        "adjudicator": null
      },
      "falsifier": "occurred=FALSE (a framing, not an event) and adjudged=FALSE (the atlas's boundary, not an authority's verdict) — the LOWEST-warrant claim here. The measured figures (NOAA storm loss) and the rating figures (FEMA expected loss, NRI score) above are each grounded; this is the only context note, and the four-status says so."
    }
  ],
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    {
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      "name": "Illinois — every risk indicator (typed)",
      "numberOfItems": 11,
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        {
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          "position": 1,
          "item": {
            "indicator": "NRI composite risk score (0–100)",
            "value": 54.461,
            "warrant": "MODELED",
            "source": "FEMA NRI"
          }
        },
        {
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          "position": 2,
          "item": {
            "indicator": "Dominant hazard",
            "value": "Earthquake",
            "warrant": "MODELED",
            "source": "FEMA NRI"
          }
        },
        {
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          "position": 3,
          "item": {
            "indicator": "Expected annual loss (USD/yr)",
            "value": 6410338001,
            "warrant": "MODELED",
            "source": "FEMA NRI"
          }
        },
        {
          "@type": "schema:ListItem",
          "position": 4,
          "item": {
            "indicator": "Counties in aggregate",
            "value": 102,
            "warrant": "—",
            "source": "FEMA NRI"
          }
        },
        {
          "@type": "schema:ListItem",
          "position": 5,
          "item": {
            "indicator": "Social vulnerability (0–100)",
            "value": 42.5744,
            "warrant": "MODELED",
            "source": "FEMA NRI · CDC/ATSDR SVI"
          }
        },
        {
          "@type": "schema:ListItem",
          "position": 6,
          "item": {
            "indicator": "Community resilience (0–100)",
            "value": 74.922,
            "warrant": "MODELED",
            "source": "FEMA NRI · HVRI BRIC"
          }
        },
        {
          "@type": "schema:ListItem",
          "position": 7,
          "item": {
            "indicator": "Storm property damage (USD)",
            "value": 532472600,
            "warrant": "RECORDED",
            "source": "NOAA Storm Events"
          }
        },
        {
          "@type": "schema:ListItem",
          "position": 8,
          "item": {
            "indicator": "Storm events recorded",
            "value": 2662,
            "warrant": "RECORDED",
            "source": "NOAA Storm Events"
          }
        },
        {
          "@type": "schema:ListItem",
          "position": 9,
          "item": {
            "indicator": "Storm direct deaths",
            "value": 9,
            "warrant": "RECORDED",
            "source": "NOAA Storm Events"
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        },
        {
          "@type": "schema:ListItem",
          "position": 10,
          "item": {
            "indicator": "Mitigation dollars obligated (USD)",
            "value": 5464965,
            "warrant": "RECORDED",
            "source": "FEMA BRIC/HMGP"
          }
        },
        {
          "@type": "schema:ListItem",
          "position": 11,
          "item": {
            "indicator": "Mitigation sub-applications",
            "value": 176,
            "warrant": "RECORDED",
            "source": "FEMA BRIC/HMGP"
          }
        }
      ]
    },
    {
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      "name": "Illinois — recorded storm perils (NOAA, 2025)",
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        {
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          "position": 1,
          "item": {
            "peril": "High Surf",
            "events": 3,
            "deaths": 3,
            "injuries": 1,
            "property_damage_usd": 0
          }
        },
        {
          "@type": "schema:ListItem",
          "position": 2,
          "item": {
            "peril": "Winter Weather",
            "events": 161,
            "deaths": 2,
            "injuries": 1,
            "property_damage_usd": 0
          }
        },
        {
          "@type": "schema:ListItem",
          "position": 3,
          "item": {
            "peril": "Cold/Wind Chill",
            "events": 96,
            "deaths": 2,
            "injuries": 0,
            "property_damage_usd": 0
          }
        },
        {
          "@type": "schema:ListItem",
          "position": 4,
          "item": {
            "peril": "Heavy Snow",
            "events": 101,
            "deaths": 1,
            "injuries": 0,
            "property_damage_usd": 80000
          }
        },
        {
          "@type": "schema:ListItem",
          "position": 5,
          "item": {
            "peril": "Heat",
            "events": 76,
            "deaths": 1,
            "injuries": 0,
            "property_damage_usd": 0
          }
        },
        {
          "@type": "schema:ListItem",
          "position": 6,
          "item": {
            "peril": "Flash Flood",
            "events": 109,
            "deaths": 0,
            "injuries": 0,
            "property_damage_usd": 498529000
          }
        },
        {
          "@type": "schema:ListItem",
          "position": 7,
          "item": {
            "peril": "Tornado",
            "events": 139,
            "deaths": 0,
            "injuries": 11,
            "property_damage_usd": 30218000
          }
        },
        {
          "@type": "schema:ListItem",
          "position": 8,
          "item": {
            "peril": "Thunderstorm Wind",
            "events": 950,
            "deaths": 0,
            "injuries": 11,
            "property_damage_usd": 1979600
          }
        },
        {
          "@type": "schema:ListItem",
          "position": 9,
          "item": {
            "peril": "Ice Storm",
            "events": 11,
            "deaths": 0,
            "injuries": 0,
            "property_damage_usd": 1005000
          }
        },
        {
          "@type": "schema:ListItem",
          "position": 10,
          "item": {
            "peril": "Heavy Rain",
            "events": 29,
            "deaths": 0,
            "injuries": 0,
            "property_damage_usd": 255000
          }
        },
        {
          "@type": "schema:ListItem",
          "position": 11,
          "item": {
            "peril": "Winter Storm",
            "events": 89,
            "deaths": 0,
            "injuries": 0,
            "property_damage_usd": 165000
          }
        },
        {
          "@type": "schema:ListItem",
          "position": 12,
          "item": {
            "peril": "Strong Wind",
            "events": 71,
            "deaths": 0,
            "injuries": 0,
            "property_damage_usd": 86000
          }
        },
        {
          "@type": "schema:ListItem",
          "position": 13,
          "item": {
            "peril": "Lightning",
            "events": 7,
            "deaths": 0,
            "injuries": 1,
            "property_damage_usd": 51000
          }
        },
        {
          "@type": "schema:ListItem",
          "position": 14,
          "item": {
            "peril": "High Wind",
            "events": 40,
            "deaths": 0,
            "injuries": 0,
            "property_damage_usd": 41500
          }
        },
        {
          "@type": "schema:ListItem",
          "position": 15,
          "item": {
            "peril": "Flood",
            "events": 69,
            "deaths": 0,
            "injuries": 0,
            "property_damage_usd": 25000
          }
        },
        {
          "@type": "schema:ListItem",
          "position": 16,
          "item": {
            "peril": "Dense Fog",
            "events": 120,
            "deaths": 0,
            "injuries": 0,
            "property_damage_usd": 19000
          }
        },
        {
          "@type": "schema:ListItem",
          "position": 17,
          "item": {
            "peril": "Wildfire",
            "events": 2,
            "deaths": 0,
            "injuries": 0,
            "property_damage_usd": 15000
          }
        },
        {
          "@type": "schema:ListItem",
          "position": 18,
          "item": {
            "peril": "Hail",
            "events": 321,
            "deaths": 0,
            "injuries": 0,
            "property_damage_usd": 3500
          }
        },
        {
          "@type": "schema:ListItem",
          "position": 19,
          "item": {
            "peril": "Drought",
            "events": 134,
            "deaths": 0,
            "injuries": 0,
            "property_damage_usd": 0
          }
        },
        {
          "@type": "schema:ListItem",
          "position": 20,
          "item": {
            "peril": "Excessive Heat",
            "events": 61,
            "deaths": 0,
            "injuries": 0,
            "property_damage_usd": 0
          }
        },
        {
          "@type": "schema:ListItem",
          "position": 21,
          "item": {
            "peril": "Dust Storm",
            "events": 30,
            "deaths": 0,
            "injuries": 0,
            "property_damage_usd": 0
          }
        },
        {
          "@type": "schema:ListItem",
          "position": 22,
          "item": {
            "peril": "Extreme Cold/Wind Chill",
            "events": 21,
            "deaths": 0,
            "injuries": 0,
            "property_damage_usd": 0
          }
        },
        {
          "@type": "schema:ListItem",
          "position": 23,
          "item": {
            "peril": "Funnel Cloud",
            "events": 16,
            "deaths": 0,
            "injuries": 0,
            "property_damage_usd": 0
          }
        },
        {
          "@type": "schema:ListItem",
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