name = "Atlas Commons research objects — natural-hazard risk profile for GU"
description = "GU's natural-hazard risk from public federal sources, with each figure's epistemic status labeled: recorded facts (NOAA storm events, property damage, and deaths for the 2025 storm year) are observations of what occurred; the cross-state rank is derived (an in-house ranking over the recorded single-year totals); rating figures (FEMA expected annual loss, FEMA NRI composite score, social vulnerability and community resilience indices) are models that authorities compute — not direct measurements; the two-lens and boundary notes are interpretation — state-level aggregates, not a verdict on any specific property. Sources: FEMA National Risk Index, NOAA Storm Events Database. CC0."
license = "CC0-1.0"
jsonld = "https://property-atlas.ryanjhunter.workers.dev/property/states/gu.jsonld"

[[claims]]
id = "https://property-atlas.ryanjhunter.workers.dev/property/states/gu/expected-annual-loss"
warrant = "MODELED"
name = "FEMA EXPECTED annual loss from natural hazards in GU is $215,554,667 (a modeled expectation)"
text = "The FEMA National Risk Index models an EXPECTED annual loss of $215,554,667 from all natural hazards for GU (1 counties, 2026). An annualized expectation of future loss, not a record."
source = "FEMA National Risk Index"
sourceUrl = "https://hazards.fema.gov/nri/"
falsifier = "occurred=FALSE: a MODELED figure — an authority's computed quantity ESTIMATING an independent/latent value (an index or annualized expectation), REPRODUCIBLE from its disclosed inputs, NOT a record of an event. adjudged=TRUE because FEMA National Risk Index (an external authority) computes and publishes it. The grounding promises \"reproduce this from the inputs\" — so a categorical authority VERDICT that is NOT reproducible (a star rating, a risk class) is a 'determination', not 'modeled'. Superseded by the next release."

[[claims]]
id = "https://property-atlas.ryanjhunter.workers.dev/property/states/gu/storm-property-damage"
warrant = "RECORDED"
name = "RECORDED storm property damage in GU totals $57,250"
text = "NOAA Storm Events records $57,250 in property damage across 26 storm events that occurred in GU."
source = "NOAA Storm Events Database"
sourceUrl = "https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/stormevents/"
falsifier = "A RECORD of measured/reported events (occurred=true) from NOAA Storm Events Database; superseded when NOAA Storm Events Database publishes its next release."

[[claims]]
id = "https://property-atlas.ryanjhunter.workers.dev/property/states/gu/boundary"
warrant = "INTERPRETATION"
name = "What this risk profile is — and is NOT — for GU (the epistemic boundary)"
text = "Every figure above is an official state-level figure from a named public authority (measured or rating, as labeled). They do NOT advise on a specific property's insurability, value, or whether to buy or insure it. For a property-level answer, use the FEMA Map Service Center and a licensed insurance producer."
source = "Property Atlas framing (over the FEMA/NOAA figures above)"
sourceUrl = "https://property-atlas.ryanjhunter.workers.dev/"
falsifier = "occurred=FALSE (a framing, not an event) and adjudged=FALSE (the atlas's boundary, not an authority's verdict) — the LOWEST-warrant claim here. The measured figures (NOAA storm loss) and the rating figures (FEMA expected loss, NRI score) above are each grounded; this is the only context note, and the four-status says so."

[[riskIndicators]]
indicator = "Expected annual loss (USD/yr)"
value = 215554667
warrant = "MODELED"
source = "FEMA NRI"

[[riskIndicators]]
indicator = "Counties in aggregate"
value = 1
warrant = "—"
source = "FEMA NRI"

[[riskIndicators]]
indicator = "Storm property damage (USD)"
value = 57250
warrant = "RECORDED"
source = "NOAA Storm Events"

[[riskIndicators]]
indicator = "Storm events recorded"
value = 26
warrant = "RECORDED"
source = "NOAA Storm Events"

[[riskIndicators]]
indicator = "Storm direct deaths"
value = 2
warrant = "RECORDED"
source = "NOAA Storm Events"

[[riskIndicators]]
indicator = "Mitigation dollars obligated (USD)"
value = 3226066
warrant = "RECORDED"
source = "FEMA BRIC/HMGP"

[[riskIndicators]]
indicator = "Mitigation sub-applications"
value = 39
warrant = "RECORDED"
source = "FEMA BRIC/HMGP"
