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  "name": "Atlas Commons research objects — natural-hazard risk profile for Connecticut",
  "description": "Connecticut's natural-hazard risk from public federal sources, with each figure's epistemic status labeled: recorded facts (NOAA storm events, property damage, and deaths for the 2025 storm year) are observations of what occurred; the cross-state rank is derived (an in-house ranking over the recorded single-year totals); rating figures (FEMA expected annual loss, FEMA NRI composite score, social vulnerability and community resilience indices) are models that authorities compute — not direct measurements; the two-lens and boundary notes are interpretation — state-level aggregates, not a verdict on any specific property. Sources: FEMA National Risk Index, NOAA Storm Events Database. CC0.",
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    "name": "Connecticut",
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    {
      "@id": "https://property-atlas.ryanjhunter.workers.dev/property/states/ct/expected-annual-loss",
      "@type": "schema:Claim",
      "name": "FEMA EXPECTED annual loss from natural hazards in Connecticut is $1,212,876,303 (a modeled expectation)",
      "text": "The FEMA National Risk Index models an EXPECTED annual loss of $1,212,876,303 from all natural hazards for Connecticut (9 counties, 2026). An annualized expectation of future loss, not a record.",
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      "falsifier": "occurred=FALSE: a MODELED figure — an authority's computed quantity ESTIMATING an independent/latent value (an index or annualized expectation), REPRODUCIBLE from its disclosed inputs, NOT a record of an event. adjudged=TRUE because FEMA National Risk Index (an external authority) computes and publishes it. The grounding promises \"reproduce this from the inputs\" — so a categorical authority VERDICT that is NOT reproducible (a star rating, a risk class) is a 'determination', not 'modeled'. Superseded by the next release."
    },
    {
      "@id": "https://property-atlas.ryanjhunter.workers.dev/property/states/ct/nri-risk-score",
      "@type": "schema:Claim",
      "name": "FEMA NRI composite risk SCORE for Connecticut is 87.6202/100 (dominant hazard: Riverine Flooding)",
      "text": "The FEMA National Risk Index composite risk score (0-100, county average; ~50 is the national midpoint, so above 50 is above the typical U.S. county) for Connecticut is 87.6202. A modeled composite index, not a recorded quantity.",
      "claimType": "derived_measure",
      "reviewStatus": "current",
      "commercialInfluence": false,
      "epistemicStatus": {
        "occurred": false,
        "supported": true,
        "adjudged": true,
        "operative": true
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      "grounding": {
        "groundingType": "DerivedMeasure",
        "source": "FEMA National Risk Index",
        "sourceUrl": "https://hazards.fema.gov/nri/",
        "value": "87.6202/100",
        "adjudicator": {
          "name": "FEMA National Risk Index",
          "url": "https://hazards.fema.gov/nri/"
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      },
      "falsifier": "occurred=FALSE: a MODELED figure — an authority's computed quantity ESTIMATING an independent/latent value (an index or annualized expectation), REPRODUCIBLE from its disclosed inputs, NOT a record of an event. adjudged=TRUE because FEMA National Risk Index (an external authority) computes and publishes it. The grounding promises \"reproduce this from the inputs\" — so a categorical authority VERDICT that is NOT reproducible (a star rating, a risk class) is a 'determination', not 'modeled'. Superseded by the next release."
    },
    {
      "@id": "https://property-atlas.ryanjhunter.workers.dev/property/states/ct/social-vulnerability",
      "@type": "schema:Claim",
      "name": "FEMA NRI social vulnerability SCORE for Connecticut is 27.0674/100 (a modeled index of who bears the risk)",
      "text": "The FEMA National Risk Index social vulnerability score (0–100, county average; built on the CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index) for Connecticut is 27.0674. A modeled composite of the social conditions that worsen a community's hazard outcomes — not a record of harm, and not a judgment of any person.",
      "claimType": "derived_measure",
      "reviewStatus": "current",
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      "epistemicStatus": {
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        "supported": true,
        "adjudged": true,
        "operative": true
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        "source": "FEMA National Risk Index (CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index)",
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      "@type": "schema:Claim",
      "name": "FEMA NRI community resilience SCORE for Connecticut is 73.1588/100 (a modeled index of the capacity to absorb and recover)",
      "text": "The FEMA National Risk Index community resilience score (0–100, county average; built on the HVRI Baseline Resilience Indicators for Communities) for Connecticut is 73.1588. A modeled composite of a community's capacity to prepare for, absorb, and recover from hazards — not a measured outcome.",
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        "adjudged": true,
        "operative": true
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        "source": "FEMA National Risk Index (HVRI Baseline Resilience Indicators for Communities)",
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        "value": "73.1588/100",
        "adjudicator": {
          "name": "FEMA National Risk Index (HVRI Baseline Resilience Indicators for Communities)",
          "url": "https://hazards.fema.gov/nri/"
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      },
      "falsifier": "occurred=FALSE: a MODELED figure — an authority's computed quantity ESTIMATING an independent/latent value (an index or annualized expectation), REPRODUCIBLE from its disclosed inputs, NOT a record of an event. adjudged=TRUE because FEMA National Risk Index (HVRI Baseline Resilience Indicators for Communities) (an external authority) computes and publishes it. The grounding promises \"reproduce this from the inputs\" — so a categorical authority VERDICT that is NOT reproducible (a star rating, a risk class) is a 'determination', not 'modeled'. Superseded by the next release."
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    {
      "@id": "https://property-atlas.ryanjhunter.workers.dev/property/states/ct/noaa-recorded-totals",
      "@type": "schema:Claim",
      "name": "NOAA recorded 123 storm events in Connecticut in 2025: $222,450 property damage, 0 direct deaths",
      "text": "The NOAA Storm Events Database records 123 storm events that occurred in Connecticut in 2025, with $222,450 in reported property damage, 0 direct deaths, and 4 direct injuries, across 15 distinct peril types. These are RECORDED occurrences (occurred=true) — the historical event log, NOT the modeled FEMA risk score above. Damage figures are NOAA's reported estimates and can undercount.",
      "claimType": "official_fact",
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      "commercialInfluence": false,
      "epistemicStatus": {
        "occurred": true,
        "supported": true,
        "adjudged": true,
        "operative": true
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      "grounding": {
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        "source": "NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database",
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        "value": "123 events / $222,450 / 0 deaths (2025)",
        "adjudicator": {
          "name": "NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database",
          "url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/stormevents/"
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      },
      "falsifier": "A RECORD of measured/reported events (occurred=true) from NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database; superseded when NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database publishes its next release."
    },
    {
      "@id": "https://property-atlas.ryanjhunter.workers.dev/property/states/ct/noaa-deadliest-peril",
      "@type": "schema:Claim",
      "name": "Thunderstorm Wind was the most consequential recorded peril in Connecticut in 2025 (0 deaths, $172,450)",
      "text": "Of all peril types NOAA recorded in Connecticut in 2025, Thunderstorm Wind caused the most direct deaths (0) across 62 events, with $172,450 in reported property damage. A recorded ranking within the actual event log (occurred=true), not a forecast of future perils.",
      "claimType": "official_fact",
      "reviewStatus": "current",
      "commercialInfluence": false,
      "epistemicStatus": {
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        "supported": true,
        "adjudged": true,
        "operative": true
      },
      "grounding": {
        "groundingType": "SourceCitation",
        "source": "NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database",
        "sourceUrl": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/stormevents/",
        "value": "Thunderstorm Wind: 0 deaths / $172,450",
        "adjudicator": {
          "name": "NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database",
          "url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/stormevents/"
        }
      },
      "falsifier": "A RECORD of measured/reported events (occurred=true) from NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database; superseded when NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database publishes its next release."
    },
    {
      "@id": "https://property-atlas.ryanjhunter.workers.dev/property/states/ct/boundary",
      "@type": "schema:Claim",
      "name": "What this risk profile is — and is NOT — for Connecticut (the epistemic boundary)",
      "text": "Every figure above is an official state-level figure from a named public authority (measured or rating, as labeled). They do NOT advise on a specific property's insurability, value, or whether to buy or insure it. For a property-level answer, use the FEMA Map Service Center and a licensed insurance producer.",
      "claimType": "interpretation",
      "reviewStatus": "current",
      "commercialInfluence": false,
      "epistemicStatus": {
        "occurred": false,
        "supported": true,
        "adjudged": false,
        "operative": true
      },
      "grounding": {
        "groundingType": "Interpretation",
        "source": "Property Atlas framing (over the FEMA/NOAA figures above)",
        "sourceUrl": "https://property-atlas.ryanjhunter.workers.dev/",
        "value": "state-level figures; route to FEMA MSC + a licensed producer for property-level decisions",
        "adjudicator": null
      },
      "falsifier": "occurred=FALSE (a framing, not an event) and adjudged=FALSE (the atlas's boundary, not an authority's verdict) — the LOWEST-warrant claim here. The measured figures (NOAA storm loss) and the rating figures (FEMA expected loss, NRI score) above are each grounded; this is the only context note, and the four-status says so."
    }
  ],
  "hasPart": [
    {
      "@type": "schema:ItemList",
      "name": "Connecticut — every risk indicator (typed)",
      "numberOfItems": 11,
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          "position": 1,
          "item": {
            "indicator": "NRI composite risk score (0–100)",
            "value": 87.6202,
            "warrant": "MODELED",
            "source": "FEMA NRI"
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          "item": {
            "indicator": "Counties in aggregate",
            "value": 9,
            "warrant": "—",
            "source": "FEMA NRI"
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          "item": {
            "indicator": "Social vulnerability (0–100)",
            "value": 27.0674,
            "warrant": "MODELED",
            "source": "FEMA NRI · CDC/ATSDR SVI"
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            "indicator": "Community resilience (0–100)",
            "value": 73.1588,
            "warrant": "MODELED",
            "source": "FEMA NRI · HVRI BRIC"
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        },
        {
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          "position": 7,
          "item": {
            "indicator": "Storm property damage (USD)",
            "value": 222450,
            "warrant": "RECORDED",
            "source": "NOAA Storm Events"
          }
        },
        {
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            "indicator": "Storm events recorded",
            "value": 123,
            "warrant": "RECORDED",
            "source": "NOAA Storm Events"
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        },
        {
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          "item": {
            "indicator": "Storm direct deaths",
            "value": 0,
            "warrant": "RECORDED",
            "source": "NOAA Storm Events"
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        },
        {
          "@type": "schema:ListItem",
          "position": 10,
          "item": {
            "indicator": "Mitigation dollars obligated (USD)",
            "value": 25910875,
            "warrant": "RECORDED",
            "source": "FEMA BRIC/HMGP"
          }
        },
        {
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          "item": {
            "indicator": "Mitigation sub-applications",
            "value": 98,
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            "source": "FEMA BRIC/HMGP"
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    {
      "@type": "schema:ItemList",
      "name": "Connecticut — recorded storm perils (NOAA, 2025)",
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            "peril": "Thunderstorm Wind",
            "events": 62,
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            "injuries": 3,
            "property_damage_usd": 172450
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            "peril": "Lightning",
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            "property_damage_usd": 31000
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            "peril": "High Wind",
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            "deaths": 0,
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            "property_damage_usd": 13000
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            "peril": "Hail",
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            "deaths": 0,
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            "property_damage_usd": 5000
          }
        },
        {
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            "peril": "Strong Wind",
            "events": 2,
            "deaths": 0,
            "injuries": 0,
            "property_damage_usd": 1000
          }
        },
        {
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            "peril": "Winter Weather",
            "events": 23,
            "deaths": 0,
            "injuries": 0,
            "property_damage_usd": 0
          }
        },
        {
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          "position": 7,
          "item": {
            "peril": "Heavy Snow",
            "events": 8,
            "deaths": 0,
            "injuries": 0,
            "property_damage_usd": 0
          }
        },
        {
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          "item": {
            "peril": "Flash Flood",
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            "deaths": 0,
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            "property_damage_usd": 0
          }
        },
        {
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            "peril": "Ice Storm",
            "events": 3,
            "deaths": 0,
            "injuries": 0,
            "property_damage_usd": 0
          }
        },
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            "events": 1,
            "deaths": 0,
            "injuries": 0,
            "property_damage_usd": 0
          }
        },
        {
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          "item": {
            "peril": "Drought",
            "events": 0,
            "deaths": 0,
            "injuries": 0,
            "property_damage_usd": 0
          }
        },
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          "item": {
            "peril": "Cold/Wind Chill",
            "events": 0,
            "deaths": 0,
            "injuries": 0,
            "property_damage_usd": 0
          }
        },
        {
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          "position": 13,
          "item": {
            "peril": "Heat",
            "events": 0,
            "deaths": 0,
            "injuries": 0,
            "property_damage_usd": 0
          }
        },
        {
          "@type": "schema:ListItem",
          "position": 14,
          "item": {
            "peril": "Excessive Heat",
            "events": 0,
            "deaths": 0,
            "injuries": 0,
            "property_damage_usd": 0
          }
        },
        {
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          "position": 15,
          "item": {
            "peril": "Winter Storm",
            "events": 0,
            "deaths": 0,
            "injuries": 0,
            "property_damage_usd": 0
          }
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}