---
title: Atlas Commons research objects — natural-hazard risk profile for Arizona
license: CC0-1.0
source: FEMA National Risk Index
---

# Atlas Commons research objects — natural-hazard risk profile for Arizona

Arizona's natural-hazard risk from public federal sources, with each figure's epistemic status labeled: recorded facts (NOAA storm events, property damage, and deaths for the 2025 storm year) are observations of what occurred; the cross-state rank is derived (an in-house ranking over the recorded single-year totals); rating figures (FEMA expected annual loss, FEMA NRI composite score, social vulnerability and community resilience indices) are models that authorities compute — not direct measurements; the two-lens and boundary notes are interpretation — state-level aggregates, not a verdict on any specific property. Sources: FEMA National Risk Index, NOAA Storm Events Database. CC0.

## Claims

### FEMA EXPECTED annual loss from natural hazards in Arizona is $3,600,040,399 (a modeled expectation)

**MODELED.** The FEMA National Risk Index models an EXPECTED annual loss of $3,600,040,399 from all natural hazards for Arizona (15 counties, 2026). An annualized expectation of future loss, not a record.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index — https://hazards.fema.gov/nri/
Falsifier: occurred=FALSE: a MODELED figure — an authority's computed quantity ESTIMATING an independent/latent value (an index or annualized expectation), REPRODUCIBLE from its disclosed inputs, NOT a record of an event. adjudged=TRUE because FEMA National Risk Index (an external authority) computes and publishes it. The grounding promises "reproduce this from the inputs" — so a categorical authority VERDICT that is NOT reproducible (a star rating, a risk class) is a 'determination', not 'modeled'. Superseded by the next release.

### FEMA NRI composite risk SCORE for Arizona is 84.4508/100 (dominant hazard: Wildfire)

**MODELED.** The FEMA National Risk Index composite risk score (0-100, county average; ~50 is the national midpoint, so above 50 is above the typical U.S. county) for Arizona is 84.4508. A modeled composite index, not a recorded quantity.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index — https://hazards.fema.gov/nri/
Falsifier: occurred=FALSE: a MODELED figure — an authority's computed quantity ESTIMATING an independent/latent value (an index or annualized expectation), REPRODUCIBLE from its disclosed inputs, NOT a record of an event. adjudged=TRUE because FEMA National Risk Index (an external authority) computes and publishes it. The grounding promises "reproduce this from the inputs" — so a categorical authority VERDICT that is NOT reproducible (a star rating, a risk class) is a 'determination', not 'modeled'. Superseded by the next release.

### FEMA NRI social vulnerability SCORE for Arizona is 71.0793/100 (a modeled index of who bears the risk)

**MODELED.** The FEMA National Risk Index social vulnerability score (0–100, county average; built on the CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index) for Arizona is 71.0793. A modeled composite of the social conditions that worsen a community's hazard outcomes — not a record of harm, and not a judgment of any person.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index (CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index) — https://hazards.fema.gov/nri/
Falsifier: occurred=FALSE: a MODELED figure — an authority's computed quantity ESTIMATING an independent/latent value (an index or annualized expectation), REPRODUCIBLE from its disclosed inputs, NOT a record of an event. adjudged=TRUE because FEMA National Risk Index (CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index) (an external authority) computes and publishes it. The grounding promises "reproduce this from the inputs" — so a categorical authority VERDICT that is NOT reproducible (a star rating, a risk class) is a 'determination', not 'modeled'. Superseded by the next release.

### FEMA NRI community resilience SCORE for Arizona is 11.2595/100 (a modeled index of the capacity to absorb and recover)

**MODELED.** The FEMA National Risk Index community resilience score (0–100, county average; built on the HVRI Baseline Resilience Indicators for Communities) for Arizona is 11.2595. A modeled composite of a community's capacity to prepare for, absorb, and recover from hazards — not a measured outcome.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index (HVRI Baseline Resilience Indicators for Communities) — https://hazards.fema.gov/nri/
Falsifier: occurred=FALSE: a MODELED figure — an authority's computed quantity ESTIMATING an independent/latent value (an index or annualized expectation), REPRODUCIBLE from its disclosed inputs, NOT a record of an event. adjudged=TRUE because FEMA National Risk Index (HVRI Baseline Resilience Indicators for Communities) (an external authority) computes and publishes it. The grounding promises "reproduce this from the inputs" — so a categorical authority VERDICT that is NOT reproducible (a star rating, a risk class) is a 'determination', not 'modeled'. Superseded by the next release.

### NOAA recorded 873 storm events in Arizona in 2025: $37,614,400 property damage, 63 direct deaths

**RECORDED.** The NOAA Storm Events Database records 873 storm events that occurred in Arizona in 2025, with $37,614,400 in reported property damage, 63 direct deaths, and 42 direct injuries, across 20 distinct peril types. These are RECORDED occurrences (occurred=true) — the historical event log, NOT the modeled FEMA risk score above. Damage figures are NOAA's reported estimates and can undercount.

Source: NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database — https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/stormevents/
Falsifier: A RECORD of measured/reported events (occurred=true) from NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database; superseded when NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database publishes its next release.

### Heat was the most consequential recorded peril in Arizona in 2025 (36 deaths, $0)

**RECORDED.** Of all peril types NOAA recorded in Arizona in 2025, Heat caused the most direct deaths (36) across 71 events, with $0 in reported property damage. A recorded ranking within the actual event log (occurred=true), not a forecast of future perils.

Source: NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database — https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/stormevents/
Falsifier: A RECORD of measured/reported events (occurred=true) from NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database; superseded when NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database publishes its next release.

### Arizona's 2025 storm deaths are 8.82 per million residents — 2nd of 51 states population-normalized (raw count: 3rd of 51)

**DERIVED.** Normalized for population, Arizona's 63 direct storm deaths in 2025 are 8.82 per million residents — the 2nd-highest of 51 states, against a typical state's 0.91. The raw count ranks 3rd of 51, but per-capita de-confounds state size and is the truer cross-state comparison. In-house rankings over NOAA's recorded single-year counts (occurred=false as a ranking, adjudged=false); population is the Census resident total summed from counties.

Source: Property Atlas — population-normalized rank within the recorded single-year state death distribution — https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/stormevents/
Falsifier: occurred=FALSE (a calculation, not an event) and adjudged=FALSE (a transparent in-house formula, not an authority's verdict — no external adjudicator). Reproduce it from its named inputs; falsified if the formula or inputs are wrong. Lower warrant than the adjudged figures above.

### Model and record diverge in Arizona: FEMA's dollar-weighted dominant hazard is Wildfire; the 2025 deadliest force was Heat

**INTERPRETATION.** FEMA's National Risk Index, weighting expected-loss DOLLARS, names Wildfire Arizona's dominant hazard. The 2025 NOAA record, weighting LIVES, shows Heat as the deadliest force. Both are correct for the question they answer — dollars and lives are different lenses on the same place. This is the atlas's reading (occurred=false, adjudged=false), not a claim that either authority is wrong.

Source: Property Atlas framing (over the FEMA model and the NOAA record above) — https://property-atlas.ryanjhunter.workers.dev/
Falsifier: occurred=FALSE (a framing, not an event) and adjudged=FALSE (the atlas's reading, not a FEMA or NOAA verdict). The FEMA dominant hazard (modeled) and the deadliest recorded peril (recorded) above are each grounded; this two-lens contrast is the interpretation that joins them.

### What this risk profile is — and is NOT — for Arizona (the epistemic boundary)

**INTERPRETATION.** Every figure above is an official state-level figure from a named public authority (measured or rating, as labeled). They do NOT advise on a specific property's insurability, value, or whether to buy or insure it. For a property-level answer, use the FEMA Map Service Center and a licensed insurance producer.

Source: Property Atlas framing (over the FEMA/NOAA figures above) — https://property-atlas.ryanjhunter.workers.dev/
Falsifier: occurred=FALSE (a framing, not an event) and adjudged=FALSE (the atlas's boundary, not an authority's verdict) — the LOWEST-warrant claim here. The measured figures (NOAA storm loss) and the rating figures (FEMA expected loss, NRI score) above are each grounded; this is the only context note, and the four-status says so.

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Every claim above carries a four-status warrant (RECORDED / MODELED / DERIVED / INTERPRETATION) and a named source you can re-fetch — this is a research object, not a flat fact. Structured: `https://property-atlas.ryanjhunter.workers.dev/property/states/az.jsonld`

## Data

### Arizona — every risk indicator (typed)

Each official figure for this state with its four-status warrant and named source. MODELED = an authority's computed index or expectation; RECORDED = an observed total.

| indicator | value | warrant | source |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| NRI composite risk score (0–100) | 84.4508 | MODELED | FEMA NRI |
| Dominant hazard | Wildfire | MODELED | FEMA NRI |
| Expected annual loss (USD/yr) | 3600040399 | MODELED | FEMA NRI |
| Counties in aggregate | 15 | — | FEMA NRI |
| Social vulnerability (0–100) | 71.0793 | MODELED | FEMA NRI · CDC/ATSDR SVI |
| Community resilience (0–100) | 11.2595 | MODELED | FEMA NRI · HVRI BRIC |
| Storm property damage (USD) | 37614400 | RECORDED | NOAA Storm Events |
| Storm events recorded | 873 | RECORDED | NOAA Storm Events |
| Storm direct deaths | 63 | RECORDED | NOAA Storm Events |
| Mitigation dollars obligated (USD) | 2964176 | RECORDED | FEMA BRIC/HMGP |
| Mitigation sub-applications | 86 | RECORDED | FEMA BRIC/HMGP |

### Arizona — recorded storm perils (NOAA, 2025)

RECORDED occurrences from the NOAA Storm Events log — direct deaths only; damage is NOAA's reported estimate; a bounded single-period record, not a forecast.

| peril | events | deaths | injuries | property_damage_usd |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Heat | 71 | 36 | 33 | 0 |
| Excessive Heat | 48 | 14 | 0 | 0 |
| Flash Flood | 260 | 7 | 0 | 31540000 |
| Cold/Wind Chill | 7 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
| Thunderstorm Wind | 132 | 0 | 0 | 4009100 |
| Wildfire | 10 | 0 | 7 | 1504000 |
| Dust Storm | 73 | 0 | 0 | 301000 |
| Lightning | 12 | 0 | 2 | 130000 |
| Tornado | 8 | 0 | 0 | 50000 |
| Flood | 26 | 0 | 0 | 32000 |
| Hail | 42 | 0 | 0 | 23800 |
| Heavy Rain | 4 | 0 | 0 | 10000 |
| Strong Wind | 5 | 0 | 0 | 7500 |
| High Wind | 47 | 0 | 0 | 4000 |
| Debris Flow | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3000 |
| Drought | 98 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Heavy Snow | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Funnel Cloud | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Winter Weather | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Winter Storm | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |