name = "Atlas Commons research objects — natural-hazard risk profile for Alabama"
description = "Alabama's natural-hazard risk from public federal sources, with each figure's epistemic status labeled: recorded facts (NOAA storm events, property damage, and deaths for the 2025 storm year) are observations of what occurred; the cross-state rank is derived (an in-house ranking over the recorded single-year totals); rating figures (FEMA expected annual loss, FEMA NRI composite score, social vulnerability and community resilience indices) are models that authorities compute — not direct measurements; the two-lens and boundary notes are interpretation — state-level aggregates, not a verdict on any specific property. Sources: FEMA National Risk Index, NOAA Storm Events Database. CC0."
license = "CC0-1.0"
jsonld = "https://property-atlas.ryanjhunter.workers.dev/property/states/al.jsonld"

[[claims]]
id = "https://property-atlas.ryanjhunter.workers.dev/property/states/al/expected-annual-loss"
warrant = "MODELED"
name = "FEMA EXPECTED annual loss from natural hazards in Alabama is $2,505,515,583 (a modeled expectation)"
text = "The FEMA National Risk Index models an EXPECTED annual loss of $2,505,515,583 from all natural hazards for Alabama (67 counties, 2026). An annualized expectation of future loss, not a record."
source = "FEMA National Risk Index"
sourceUrl = "https://hazards.fema.gov/nri/"
falsifier = "occurred=FALSE: a MODELED figure — an authority's computed quantity ESTIMATING an independent/latent value (an index or annualized expectation), REPRODUCIBLE from its disclosed inputs, NOT a record of an event. adjudged=TRUE because FEMA National Risk Index (an external authority) computes and publishes it. The grounding promises \"reproduce this from the inputs\" — so a categorical authority VERDICT that is NOT reproducible (a star rating, a risk class) is a 'determination', not 'modeled'. Superseded by the next release."

[[claims]]
id = "https://property-atlas.ryanjhunter.workers.dev/property/states/al/nri-risk-score"
warrant = "MODELED"
name = "FEMA NRI composite risk SCORE for Alabama is 61.5387/100 (dominant hazard: Hurricane)"
text = "The FEMA National Risk Index composite risk score (0-100, county average; ~50 is the national midpoint, so above 50 is above the typical U.S. county) for Alabama is 61.5387. A modeled composite index, not a recorded quantity."
source = "FEMA National Risk Index"
sourceUrl = "https://hazards.fema.gov/nri/"
falsifier = "occurred=FALSE: a MODELED figure — an authority's computed quantity ESTIMATING an independent/latent value (an index or annualized expectation), REPRODUCIBLE from its disclosed inputs, NOT a record of an event. adjudged=TRUE because FEMA National Risk Index (an external authority) computes and publishes it. The grounding promises \"reproduce this from the inputs\" — so a categorical authority VERDICT that is NOT reproducible (a star rating, a risk class) is a 'determination', not 'modeled'. Superseded by the next release."

[[claims]]
id = "https://property-atlas.ryanjhunter.workers.dev/property/states/al/social-vulnerability"
warrant = "MODELED"
name = "FEMA NRI social vulnerability SCORE for Alabama is 75.0741/100 (a modeled index of who bears the risk)"
text = "The FEMA National Risk Index social vulnerability score (0–100, county average; built on the CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index) for Alabama is 75.0741. A modeled composite of the social conditions that worsen a community's hazard outcomes — not a record of harm, and not a judgment of any person."
source = "FEMA National Risk Index (CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index)"
sourceUrl = "https://hazards.fema.gov/nri/"
falsifier = "occurred=FALSE: a MODELED figure — an authority's computed quantity ESTIMATING an independent/latent value (an index or annualized expectation), REPRODUCIBLE from its disclosed inputs, NOT a record of an event. adjudged=TRUE because FEMA National Risk Index (CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index) (an external authority) computes and publishes it. The grounding promises \"reproduce this from the inputs\" — so a categorical authority VERDICT that is NOT reproducible (a star rating, a risk class) is a 'determination', not 'modeled'. Superseded by the next release."

[[claims]]
id = "https://property-atlas.ryanjhunter.workers.dev/property/states/al/community-resilience"
warrant = "MODELED"
name = "FEMA NRI community resilience SCORE for Alabama is 39.2261/100 (a modeled index of the capacity to absorb and recover)"
text = "The FEMA National Risk Index community resilience score (0–100, county average; built on the HVRI Baseline Resilience Indicators for Communities) for Alabama is 39.2261. A modeled composite of a community's capacity to prepare for, absorb, and recover from hazards — not a measured outcome."
source = "FEMA National Risk Index (HVRI Baseline Resilience Indicators for Communities)"
sourceUrl = "https://hazards.fema.gov/nri/"
falsifier = "occurred=FALSE: a MODELED figure — an authority's computed quantity ESTIMATING an independent/latent value (an index or annualized expectation), REPRODUCIBLE from its disclosed inputs, NOT a record of an event. adjudged=TRUE because FEMA National Risk Index (HVRI Baseline Resilience Indicators for Communities) (an external authority) computes and publishes it. The grounding promises \"reproduce this from the inputs\" — so a categorical authority VERDICT that is NOT reproducible (a star rating, a risk class) is a 'determination', not 'modeled'. Superseded by the next release."

[[claims]]
id = "https://property-atlas.ryanjhunter.workers.dev/property/states/al/noaa-recorded-totals"
warrant = "RECORDED"
name = "NOAA recorded 2,223 storm events in Alabama in 2025: $21,812,700 property damage, 11 direct deaths"
text = "The NOAA Storm Events Database records 2,223 storm events that occurred in Alabama in 2025, with $21,812,700 in reported property damage, 11 direct deaths, and 39 direct injuries, across 19 distinct peril types. These are RECORDED occurrences (occurred=true) — the historical event log, NOT the modeled FEMA risk score above. Damage figures are NOAA's reported estimates and can undercount."
source = "NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database"
sourceUrl = "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/stormevents/"
falsifier = "A RECORD of measured/reported events (occurred=true) from NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database; superseded when NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database publishes its next release."

[[claims]]
id = "https://property-atlas.ryanjhunter.workers.dev/property/states/al/noaa-deadliest-peril"
warrant = "RECORDED"
name = "Heat was the most consequential recorded peril in Alabama in 2025 (4 deaths, $0)"
text = "Of all peril types NOAA recorded in Alabama in 2025, Heat caused the most direct deaths (4) across 81 events, with $0 in reported property damage. A recorded ranking within the actual event log (occurred=true), not a forecast of future perils."
source = "NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database"
sourceUrl = "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/stormevents/"
falsifier = "A RECORD of measured/reported events (occurred=true) from NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database; superseded when NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database publishes its next release."

[[claims]]
id = "https://property-atlas.ryanjhunter.workers.dev/property/states/al/national-death-rank"
warrant = "DERIVED"
name = "Alabama's 2025 storm deaths are 2.19 per million residents — 15th of 51 states population-normalized (raw count: 13th of 51)"
text = "Normalized for population, Alabama's 11 direct storm deaths in 2025 are 2.19 per million residents — the 15th-highest of 51 states, against a typical state's 0.91. The raw count ranks 13th of 51, but per-capita de-confounds state size and is the truer cross-state comparison. In-house rankings over NOAA's recorded single-year counts (occurred=false as a ranking, adjudged=false); population is the Census resident total summed from counties."
source = "Property Atlas — population-normalized rank within the recorded single-year state death distribution"
sourceUrl = "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/stormevents/"
falsifier = "occurred=FALSE (a calculation, not an event) and adjudged=FALSE (a transparent in-house formula, not an authority's verdict — no external adjudicator). Reproduce it from its named inputs; falsified if the formula or inputs are wrong. Lower warrant than the adjudged figures above."

[[claims]]
id = "https://property-atlas.ryanjhunter.workers.dev/property/states/al/two-lens-model-vs-record"
warrant = "INTERPRETATION"
name = "Model and record diverge in Alabama: FEMA's dollar-weighted dominant hazard is Hurricane; the 2025 deadliest force was Heat"
text = "FEMA's National Risk Index, weighting expected-loss DOLLARS, names Hurricane Alabama's dominant hazard. The 2025 NOAA record, weighting LIVES, shows Heat as the deadliest force. Both are correct for the question they answer — dollars and lives are different lenses on the same place. This is the atlas's reading (occurred=false, adjudged=false), not a claim that either authority is wrong."
source = "Property Atlas framing (over the FEMA model and the NOAA record above)"
sourceUrl = "https://property-atlas.ryanjhunter.workers.dev/"
falsifier = "occurred=FALSE (a framing, not an event) and adjudged=FALSE (the atlas's reading, not a FEMA or NOAA verdict). The FEMA dominant hazard (modeled) and the deadliest recorded peril (recorded) above are each grounded; this two-lens contrast is the interpretation that joins them."

[[claims]]
id = "https://property-atlas.ryanjhunter.workers.dev/property/states/al/boundary"
warrant = "INTERPRETATION"
name = "What this risk profile is — and is NOT — for Alabama (the epistemic boundary)"
text = "Every figure above is an official state-level figure from a named public authority (measured or rating, as labeled). They do NOT advise on a specific property's insurability, value, or whether to buy or insure it. For a property-level answer, use the FEMA Map Service Center and a licensed insurance producer."
source = "Property Atlas framing (over the FEMA/NOAA figures above)"
sourceUrl = "https://property-atlas.ryanjhunter.workers.dev/"
falsifier = "occurred=FALSE (a framing, not an event) and adjudged=FALSE (the atlas's boundary, not an authority's verdict) — the LOWEST-warrant claim here. The measured figures (NOAA storm loss) and the rating figures (FEMA expected loss, NRI score) above are each grounded; this is the only context note, and the four-status says so."

[[riskIndicators]]
indicator = "NRI composite risk score (0–100)"
value = 61.5387
warrant = "MODELED"
source = "FEMA NRI"

[[riskIndicators]]
indicator = "Dominant hazard"
value = "Hurricane"
warrant = "MODELED"
source = "FEMA NRI"

[[riskIndicators]]
indicator = "Expected annual loss (USD/yr)"
value = 2505515583
warrant = "MODELED"
source = "FEMA NRI"

[[riskIndicators]]
indicator = "Counties in aggregate"
value = 67
warrant = "—"
source = "FEMA NRI"

[[riskIndicators]]
indicator = "Social vulnerability (0–100)"
value = 75.0741
warrant = "MODELED"
source = "FEMA NRI · CDC/ATSDR SVI"

[[riskIndicators]]
indicator = "Community resilience (0–100)"
value = 39.2261
warrant = "MODELED"
source = "FEMA NRI · HVRI BRIC"

[[riskIndicators]]
indicator = "Storm property damage (USD)"
value = 21812700
warrant = "RECORDED"
source = "NOAA Storm Events"

[[riskIndicators]]
indicator = "Storm events recorded"
value = 2223
warrant = "RECORDED"
source = "NOAA Storm Events"

[[riskIndicators]]
indicator = "Storm direct deaths"
value = 11
warrant = "RECORDED"
source = "NOAA Storm Events"

[[riskIndicators]]
indicator = "Mitigation dollars obligated (USD)"
value = 2636260
warrant = "RECORDED"
source = "FEMA BRIC/HMGP"

[[riskIndicators]]
indicator = "Mitigation sub-applications"
value = 55
warrant = "RECORDED"
source = "FEMA BRIC/HMGP"

[[recordedPerils]]
peril = "Heat"
events = 81
deaths = 4
injuries = 0
property_damage_usd = 0

[[recordedPerils]]
peril = "Tornado"
events = 85
deaths = 3
injuries = 18
property_damage_usd = 8993000

[[recordedPerils]]
peril = "Thunderstorm Wind"
events = 1515
deaths = 1
injuries = 14
property_damage_usd = 4228700

[[recordedPerils]]
peril = "Flash Flood"
events = 98
deaths = 1
injuries = 2
property_damage_usd = 0

[[recordedPerils]]
peril = "Winter Storm"
events = 19
deaths = 1
injuries = 0
property_damage_usd = 0

[[recordedPerils]]
peril = "Rip Current"
events = 1
deaths = 1
injuries = 0
property_damage_usd = 0

[[recordedPerils]]
peril = "Lightning"
events = 15
deaths = 0
injuries = 5
property_damage_usd = 8568000

[[recordedPerils]]
peril = "Strong Wind"
events = 7
deaths = 0
injuries = 0
property_damage_usd = 23000

[[recordedPerils]]
peril = "Hail"
events = 174
deaths = 0
injuries = 0
property_damage_usd = 0

[[recordedPerils]]
peril = "Drought"
events = 89
deaths = 0
injuries = 0
property_damage_usd = 0

[[recordedPerils]]
peril = "Heavy Snow"
events = 42
deaths = 0
injuries = 0
property_damage_usd = 0

[[recordedPerils]]
peril = "Cold/Wind Chill"
events = 30
deaths = 0
injuries = 0
property_damage_usd = 0

[[recordedPerils]]
peril = "Excessive Heat"
events = 23
deaths = 0
injuries = 0
property_damage_usd = 0

[[recordedPerils]]
peril = "Winter Weather"
events = 16
deaths = 0
injuries = 0
property_damage_usd = 0

[[recordedPerils]]
peril = "Frost/Freeze"
events = 11
deaths = 0
injuries = 0
property_damage_usd = 0

[[recordedPerils]]
peril = "Flood"
events = 7
deaths = 0
injuries = 0
property_damage_usd = 0

[[recordedPerils]]
peril = "Extreme Cold/Wind Chill"
events = 6
deaths = 0
injuries = 0
property_damage_usd = 0

[[recordedPerils]]
peril = "Funnel Cloud"
events = 2
deaths = 0
injuries = 0
property_damage_usd = 0

[[recordedPerils]]
peril = "Heavy Rain"
events = 2
deaths = 0
injuries = 0
property_damage_usd = 0
