---
title: Middlesex, VA — natural hazard risk profile & national ranking
source: FEMA National Risk Index (county-level)
sourceUrl: https://hazards.fema.gov/nri/
fips: 51119
---

# Middlesex, VA

Virginia · pop. 10,607 · FIPS 51119

**FEMA risk rating: Very Low** · dominant hazard: Hurricane · modeled expected annual loss $6M/yr

These risk dimensions are FEMA/CDC MODELS (a rating, not records of disasters); population is a recorded census figure.

## Where Middlesex ranks among 3,232 U.S. counties

Each rank is COMPUTED — the county's modeled score placed within the national distribution. A rank within a model, not within observed disasters.

| Dimension | This county | National rank |
| --- | --- | --- |
| FEMA risk index | 23.79 | ≈ 24th pct — among the lowest nationally (national median 50.02, n=3,144) |
| Expected annual loss | $6M | ≈ 2nd pct — among the lowest nationally (national median $15M, n=3,232) |
| Social vulnerability | 83.24 | ≈ 83rd pct — higher than 83% of counties (national median 50.03, n=3,144) |
| Community resilience | 78.12 | ≈ 78th pct — higher than 78% of counties (national median 50.02, n=3,144) |

## Realized flood losses in Middlesex (RECORDED — NFIP claims)

The National Flood Insurance Program has paid **234** flood-insurance claims totaling **$3M** in Middlesex since 1978. The costliest year of loss was **2003** ($2M paid).

| Metric | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Total claims paid | $3,221,217 |
| Claims | 234 |
| Average claim | $13,766 |
| Largest single claim | $146,337 |
| Claims since 2000 | 195 |
| In high-risk flood zones (A/V) | 83% |

These are **RECORDED** actual paid NFIP claims (a redacted census from OpenFEMA), not a model — the realized counterpart to the FEMA risk score above. **Scope:** flood-*insurance* claims UNDERCOUNT flooding where owners were uninsured ("what NFIP paid," not "every flood"); county-level totals, not a per-property verdict. Source: OpenFEMA NFIP Redacted Claims v2 (`src:openfema:nfip-claims-v2:2026`). Verify an address and buy coverage at https://www.floodsmart.gov/.

## What this is — and is NOT (interpretation)

This is FEMA/CDC **modeled** hazard exposure for Middlesex, VA and its national rank. It is **not** a verdict on whether Middlesex is a good or bad place to live (hazard exposure is not place quality), **not** a per-property or per-address assessment, **not** a prediction of any specific disaster, and **not** insurance advice. For site-specific risk use a per-property assessment; for the model see https://hazards.fema.gov/nri/.

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Structured data (JSON-LD), with each figure's status labeled: `/property/counties/51119.jsonld`