---
title: Arlington, VA — natural hazard risk profile & national ranking
source: FEMA National Risk Index (county-level)
sourceUrl: https://hazards.fema.gov/nri/
fips: 51013
---

# Arlington, VA

Virginia · pop. 238,619 · FIPS 51013

**FEMA risk rating: Relatively Low** · dominant hazard: Heat Wave · modeled expected annual loss $38M/yr

These risk dimensions are FEMA/CDC MODELS (a rating, not records of disasters); population is a recorded census figure.

## Where Arlington ranks among 3,232 U.S. counties

Each rank is COMPUTED — the county's modeled score placed within the national distribution. A rank within a model, not within observed disasters.

| Dimension | This county | National rank |
| --- | --- | --- |
| FEMA risk index | 66.79 | ≈ 67th pct — near the national middle (67th percentile) (national median 50.02, n=3,144) |
| Expected annual loss | $38M | ≈ 12th pct — among the lowest nationally (national median $15M, n=3,232) |
| Social vulnerability | 10.62 | ≈ 0th pct — among the lowest nationally (national median 50.03, n=3,144) |
| Community resilience | 64.38 | ≈ 64th pct — near the national middle (64th percentile) (national median 50.02, n=3,144) |

## Realized flood losses in Arlington (RECORDED — NFIP claims)

The National Flood Insurance Program has paid **215** flood-insurance claims totaling **$2M** in Arlington since 1978. The costliest year of loss was **2019** ($1M paid).

| Metric | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Total claims paid | $1,618,472 |
| Claims | 215 |
| Average claim | $7,528 |
| Largest single claim | $173,752 |
| Claims since 2000 | 177 |
| In high-risk flood zones (A/V) | 19% |

These are **RECORDED** actual paid NFIP claims (a redacted census from OpenFEMA), not a model — the realized counterpart to the FEMA risk score above. **Scope:** flood-*insurance* claims UNDERCOUNT flooding where owners were uninsured ("what NFIP paid," not "every flood"); county-level totals, not a per-property verdict. Source: OpenFEMA NFIP Redacted Claims v2 (`src:openfema:nfip-claims-v2:2026`). Verify an address and buy coverage at https://www.floodsmart.gov/.

## What this is — and is NOT (interpretation)

This is FEMA/CDC **modeled** hazard exposure for Arlington, VA and its national rank. It is **not** a verdict on whether Arlington is a good or bad place to live (hazard exposure is not place quality), **not** a per-property or per-address assessment, **not** a prediction of any specific disaster, and **not** insurance advice. For site-specific risk use a per-property assessment; for the model see https://hazards.fema.gov/nri/.

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Structured data (JSON-LD), with each figure's status labeled: `/property/counties/51013.jsonld`